Introduction: On April 28, CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno reported that the Bitcoin bull market index (Bull Score Index) reached 60, marking a milestone event suggesting that the market may enter a strong bull market phase.
This article will delve into the significance of this indicator, the current market conditions, historical context, and potential influencing factors in the future. Definition and importance of the bull market index: The bull market index is a composite indicator developed by CryptoQuant, combining ten key market indicators, including network activity, investor profitability, liquidity, and demand.
1. Its score ranges from 0 to 100, with higher scores typically indicating a bullish environment. According to historical data, when the index is above 60, Bitcoin prices tend to maintain an upward trend.
The reading of 60 on April 28 marks the market's rebound from previously lower levels (such as 20 in March), indicating a recovery of optimistic sentiment. Analysts note that this is related to the growing demand for Bitcoin and stablecoins, reflecting an increase in investor confidence in cryptocurrencies.
Historical context: The price history of Bitcoin shows significant bull and bear cycles, often associated with the halving events that occur every four years. Halving events reduce the supply of new Bitcoins.
For example: After the halving in 2012, the price of Bitcoin increased by 5200%. After the halving in 2016, it rose by 315%. After the halving in 2020, it increased by 230%. The most recent halving occurred on April 19, 2024, and by March 2025, Bitcoin rose by as much as 607% from its low in 2022, although it subsequently fell about 20% from a peak of $109,358.
What makes the current bull market cycle unique is that over 73% of the Bitcoin supply is in a non-liquid state (i.e., long-term holding or considered lost), which may further tighten market liquidity and drive prices up. The current market conditions align with the predicted bull market index reaching 60 and recent market dynamics.
Changelly predicts that by April 29, the price of Bitcoin could reach $103,650.98, while CoinCodex predicts a price range of $95,862 to $100,433 on April 28. These predictions reflect the market's optimistic expectations for a bull market. Additionally, turmoil in traditional markets has also driven demand for Bitcoin.
CNBC reported that on April 22, the price of Bitcoin returned to $90,000, with investors viewing it as an alternative asset amidst a declining dollar and stock market turbulence. This indicates that Bitcoin is seen as a safe-haven asset similar to gold in the context of increasing global economic uncertainty.
Key factors driving the bull market: The following factors may drive the current bull market:
Increase in demand: The rising demand for Bitcoin and stablecoins indicates an increase in investor interest in cryptocurrencies.
Institutional adoption: The approval of Bitcoin ETFs and participation from institutional investors have bolstered market confidence.
Macroeconomic uncertainty: Pressure on the dollar and global economic challenges make Bitcoin a safe-haven asset.
Supply scarcity: Over 73% of Bitcoin supply is in a non-liquid state, which may lead to tightened market liquidity and drive prices up. Potential risks and challenges: Despite the optimistic outlook, the market still faces several risks!
Regulatory changes: Unfavorable regulatory policies could undermine investor confidence.
Market volatility: The inherent high volatility of the cryptocurrency market may lead to significant price corrections.
Geopolitical events: Unforeseen geopolitical developments may introduce uncertainty.
Technical risks: Potential issues or security vulnerabilities in the Bitcoin network could undermine market trust. Investors should remain vigilant and pay attention to the developments of these factors.
Conclusion: The Bitcoin bull market index reaching 60 is a strong signal suggesting that the market may continue to maintain bullish momentum. Combining the historical bull market patterns following halvings with the current macroeconomic environment, Bitcoin seems to have room for further growth. However, potential risks should not be overlooked, and investors should conduct thorough research and make decisions based on their risk tolerance.