Below are the key points of Trump's 2025 tax reform plan:
- Tariff Adjustments: On April 2, 2025, local time, Trump announced a 10% 'baseline tariff' on all countries, with personalized higher 'reciprocal tariffs' imposed on countries with the largest trade deficits with the U.S. For example, cumulative tariffs on China could reach 104%, Vietnam 46%, Cambodia 49%, etc. At the same time, certain products may be exempt, such as steel and aluminum products constrained by specific tariffs, automobiles, as well as copper, pharmaceuticals, etc.
- Income Tax Adjustment Proposal: The plan aims to reduce the tax burden on middle and low-income families through tariff revenues, potentially significantly reducing or even eliminating federal income tax. However, no specific details on income tax adjustments have been announced yet, such as how tax rates will change or whether tax brackets will be adjusted.
From an economic perspective, the Tax Foundation estimates that the tax reform will increase the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the U.S. by more than 9%, increase real wages by 8%, and create at least 2 million new permanent full-time jobs. However, a report from the American think tank TPC indicates that the long-term impact on U.S. economic growth is minimal and could potentially lead to higher inflation. The American Tax Policy Center estimates that the tax reform will reduce U.S. federal revenue by $2.4 to $2.5 trillion from 2017 to 2027 and by $3.4 trillion from 2027 to 2037. From an international perspective, U.S. tax reform may trigger a global race to cut taxes, impacting the tax policies and economic development of other countries.