The financial markets started this morning with great calm, with a rebound in stocks, stability in bond yields, and oil regaining its footing.
These movements are based on a struggle between two main narratives, the first of which is currently dominant — namely:
Expectations for a less bumpy journey towards a fairer trading system where the United States receives concessions from its trading partners in a world of generally low tariffs, and the markets receive assistance from more flexible financial conditions as the Federal Reserve implements the four rate cuts currently anticipated by traders.
Conversely,
There are more difficulties ahead as prolonged negotiations continue, with reciprocal tariffs dominating in the meantime, the Federal Reserve facing constraints due to rising inflation rates, and the markets forced to reprice growth expectations outside the United States.
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