If Ethereum's EVM does not undergo fundamental structural upgrades before 2027, by around 2030 at the latest, EVM will completely lose its dominant position in mainstream emerging markets, leading to the complete decline of ETH.
Analysis of the EVM status:
1. Current status of EVM (2025 status)
It remains the compatibility standard for the vast majority of chains (ETH, BNB, Polygon, Arbitrum, and other Layer2 are all compatible with EVM).
There is a significant capital inertia, with funds, developers, ecological tools, and wallet support all revolving around EVM.
However, EVM itself has seen almost no essential upgrades (relying only on minor tweaks, such as proto-danksharding and Layer2 auxiliary speed improvements).
Next-generation chains (Move VM, Sealevel, WASM VM) significantly outperform in technical performance and are gradually becoming the new favorites of developers.
2. Technical evolution pattern
The iteration cycle of blockchain underlying infrastructure generally occurs every 5-7 years (for example: Ethereum's rise in 2015-2016, the explosion of DeFi + Layer2 in 2020).
New generation chains (such as Aptos, Sui, Solana, Fuel Network, Sei, Monad) are polishing and attracting developers, but have not yet formed a comprehensive crushing momentum.
It is expected that after another 1-2 years (2026-2027), if the new chain infrastructure matures, the migration of developers from the EVM ecosystem will begin to accelerate.
3. Capital cycle and market elimination window
Mainstream capital typically does not immediately abandon old systems but quickly switches once new technologies stabilize.
If the EVM ecosystem still does not see a qualitative upgrade by 2026-2027 (for instance, fundamentally solving parallel processing, doubling performance, and significantly improving the development experience), then:
The migration of developers will accelerate in 2027.
The migration of funds will start to become evident in 2028.
The true meaning of "market elimination" may be completed around 2030.
If Ethereum's EVM does not undergo fundamental structural upgrades (rather than just patching) before 2027,
then by around 2030 at the latest, EVM will completely lose its dominant position in mainstream emerging markets.
By then, although it may still linger in some old projects (like some old websites that still use early PHP), it will be entirely replaced by new VM systems at the level of emerging chains, mainstream capital, and developers.
