Bitcoin is trading at a "40% discount" as spot BTC ETF purchases reach $3 billion in a week.
Data shows that Bitcoin's price is 40% undervalued, and the surge in spot BTC ETF purchases suggests institutional investors agree.
It is currently trading at a 40% discount to its intrinsic value, according to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments.
In a recent post on X, Edwards highlighted that since the April 2024 Bitcoin halving, which reduced block rewards to 3,125 BTC, the energy value of Bitcoin—an estimate based on mining costs and energy consumption—stands at $130,000.
Bitcoin's intrinsic value based on energy consumption and market price. Source: X.com
Recent data from CryptoQuant indicated that over 8,756 BTC ($830 million) was withdrawn from Coinbase on April 24. Negative net flows from Coinbase could indicate institutional buying or ETF-related purchases that reflect underlying demand.
Net Bitcoin flows on the Coinbase exchange. Source: CryptoQuant
This development coincides with the inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs seen this week. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas suggests that institutions have embarked on a $3 billion "Bitcoin rush" in recent days.
Binance also saw outflows of 27,750 BTC on April 25. Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, noted that “this is the third-largest Bitcoin outflow in the exchange’s history.” While the large outflows and positive price action suggest bullish winds, Wedson said they don’t automatically mean a continued rally. The analyst stated:
“In 2021, massive outflows didn't prevent the crash triggered by the Chinese cryptocurrency ban (April-May). On the other hand, sustained outflows over several days, such as during the FTX crash, signaled a bottom and a recovery.”
Can this Bitcoin fractal push BTC above $100,000 in April?
Bitcoin's weekly performance marks its largest return in 2025 and its most significant increase since November 2024. In addition to similar returns, BTC's price also reflects identical price action.
Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
As illustrated on the 1-day chart, Bitcoin is consolidating in a higher range after its breakout, mirroring its Q4 2024 performance (circled). After a 13% surge between November 5 and 9, BTC posted another 15% surge on November 10 and 11. The breakout also took place over the weekend.
Similarly, BTC prices have risen 11% between April 21 and 25. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also showing similar buying pressure, a 7-10% jump in the coming days could take BTC above $100,000.
Although fractal patterns can repeat, they aren't completely reliable. Unlike in the fourth quarter, when Bitcoin entered price discovery and surged without resistance, the current resistance level at $96,100 could prevent a breakout.