The overall price trend of Bitcoin is showing a sideways fluctuation, fluctuating within a certain range. The current price is around 94352.5. The market has shown important patterns at multiple points, such as bearish engulfing patterns, indicating potential risks of a decline in the short term.
In the short term, the market has just gone through a round of increases and has entered a consolidation phase. The AO and MACD indicators suggest that the market may show signs of stabilizing and bouncing back, but the balance of buying and selling forces keeps the market in a wait-and-see stance. Support and resistance levels show that the current market maintains an optimistic sentiment and has strong upward momentum.
Recommendation: Given the recent sideways fluctuations in the market, there may be signs of adjustment and potential rebound opportunities in the short term. Pay attention to key support at 93777 and resistance at 95768.6, especially the stability of the support level. If the price continues to rise, consider going long in the short term and setting appropriate stop-loss points.
ETH may pull back to 1650; otherwise, it will struggle to rise. Everyone should have seen that the recent strong performance of $ETH is due to ETF purchases, with retail investors following suit, causing the price to soar. However, this has previously hurt the hearts of E-guardians. Now, things are different as ETF purchases have made the price exceptionally firm. ETH has started to break through previous highs, with a 3% increase in 24 hours, currently reported at $1846. I still maintain the previous view that 1895 is a strong resistance level. A piercing pattern has appeared on the daily chart (weaker than BTC). It is advisable to reduce positions and consider re-entering long positions if it pulls back to 1650.
As for the future of ETH, opinions vary. It is still worth it; just control the risks! While reviewing earlier, I suddenly realized an issue: if you, like me, bought $ETH at the bottom of 1800 on April 5th and did not make any moves in between, just holding on, you are just now breaking even.
In general, betting on the Ethereum upgrade in June with a bet on interest rate cuts. Currently, major bloggers across the network are uniformly bearish, and this consistency is problematic. The current focus is on altcoins:
1. There haven't been any major changes on the macro level. Trade negotiations are ongoing, and if no agreement is reached by July, Trump has indicated that relevant tariff policies will continue.
2. Yesterday continued to see a rebound, with $Trump leading the meme resurgence. Currently, $pengu, $bonk, $tubo, $pnut, etc., are all performing strongly.
3. The AI track is experiencing a significant rebound, with $ai16z, $aixbt, $virtual, etc., all showing substantial increases. After three months of decline, it took less than a week to rise.
4. Recently, there have been many golden dogs on the Sol chain. Yesterday, $house became popular, which is a project hedging against the real estate market. Its market cap had been stable around 7M, but suddenly surged yesterday, with FDV reaching over 55M.
5. The newly launched meme platform #lestbonk by BONK saw its FDV soar to around 30M after its release, currently under 10M. If there's short-term FOMO, remember to take profits.
6. Growth of stablecoins; USDT (14.7 billion), USDC (62 billion) market values continue to rise, indicating a flow of funds.
CEX operations: $alpaca uses a contract rate of -2% for one hour to settle spot positions, creating a short squeeze.
A batch of established altcoins has already completed a full cycle of overbought to oversold, with BSV being the most typical example. Interestingly, in this round of rebounds, many established coins have significantly outperformed ETH, with #BCH up 54.62%, #BSV nearly 93.88%, #SOL rising 42.67%, and #AAVE increasing by 51.72%. These leading old coins should continue to be monitored.
Currently, we have experienced the worst of the macro environment, and we are basically back to normal. Once the market continues to adjust and fully regains confidence, the situation will shift from rebound to reversal. If there are no interest rate cuts in May, they are likely to happen in June. Combined with related tariff negotiations and other policies, the market will be ready to act, making May and June a great time for strategic positioning. Speaking of good targets, I think the following logic is sound: Logic 1: Crypto has no community, only hot topics. Logic 2: U.S. politics and macro will be the main hotspots in this wave of the market. Logic 3: Hot topics determine direction, and the amount of major institutions involved determines the liquidity base. Logic 4: Trump and pnut are the two targets; Trump's advantages and disadvantages are clear. The advantage is the direct relationships; the disadvantage is uncertainty about how to leverage these relationships. For safety, I chose pnut.
Next Wednesday's PCE inflation data looks very bullish. The market expects PCE to drop sharply by 0.3% to 2.2%, and the core PCE to fall by 0.2% to 2.6%, both returning to normal levels. This likely indicates the success of the Federal Reserve in combating inflation and the beginning of interest rate cuts, largely due to the tariff recession crisis. This significantly increases the probability of Fed rate cuts, which could be seen as a blessing in disguise. The first rate cut by the Fed is crucial and signals the start of a bull market, so let's hope for a smooth process.
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