Did you come across the news that 'India wants to cut off Pakistan's water supply'? Don't rush to feel anxious for Pakistan! This transnational 'water cut' drama is far more intriguing than the trending headlines—
Level One Strike: India cannot actually turn off the 'faucet'!
Many people think that when India says 'water cut', it means water cut? Geography representative here to clarify: The main river of the Indus does not flow through India at all! This mother river of South Asia gets 80% of its water from Tibet, China, and flows entirely through Pakistan downstream.
What India can really choke is the five hydropower stations upstream—but according to the 1960 Indus Water Treaty, India can only use the three eastern tributaries, while Pakistan uses the three western tributaries.
Now India is playing the 'freeze treaty data sharing' game, equivalent to tearing down surveillance cameras, but the faucet is still flowing!
Level Two Killer Move: Releasing water during the rainy season is the real ruthless move!
Last year, Pakistan was hit by a century-old flood, displacing 15% of the population, with 34 million people homeless.
India suddenly announces 'not sharing hydrological data', clearly intending to launch a surprise attack during the rainy season—opening the gates to create floods! The recent surge in the Jhelum River's water level is a precursor, and Pakistani farmland has already suffered.
How damaging is this move? It's equivalent to taking lives while people are sick, using natural disasters to strike the economy!
Level Three Calculation: Modi's 'Sunshine Strategy' is a sure win.
Don't be fooled by the 'Water Cut' headlines! Modi's real calculation is:
1. Economic Warfare: In 2024, Pakistan's external debt will exceed one trillion, and nationwide blackouts will become frequent. At this time, releasing water could worsen the situation for the opponent.
2. Political Card: Use the water crisis to divert domestic conflicts and create momentum for the elections.
3. Public Opinion War: Blame Pakistan for 'violating the treaty' and get the international community to take sides.
The most amazing part is that with India's GDP growing at 7.8%, they are confident. If war really breaks out? They should first consider the weight of the nuclear buttons of both countries!
The ultimate truth: No one dares to really flip the table!
Don't be fooled by the fierce arguments from both sides; the melting snow of the Himalayas is a natural 'fire extinguisher'. Cutting off water would mean mutual destruction, and Modi's tactics are:
1. Treat the water agreement as a bargaining chip.
2. Use floods as threats instead of real weapons.
3. Let the international community play the mediator.
In simple terms, this is the international version of 'Werewolf'—shouting and yelling on the surface, but actually testing the bottom line. Who knows, by tomorrow morning, the two countries might shake hands again: 'The data sharing system has been temporarily fixed!'
The correct posture for bystanders:
1. Don't be swayed by the 'Water Cut' headlines; at its core, it's economic sanctions.
2. Pay attention to the rainy season timeline (June to September), that is the key battlefield.
3. In a conflict between nuclear powers, the likelihood of actually going to war is lower than winning the lottery.
This South Asian 'Palace Intrigue' tells us: International politics is much more exciting than TV dramas! Next time you see 'water cut' or 'air cut' news, look at the map first before cursing, to avoid being misled~
