Yesterday we talked about (why the coin that was sentenced to delisting by Binance actually pumped)
Today, Naruto continues to analyze from the current market situation and the logic of maximizing the interests of the manipulators. Combining the countdown to the forced liquidation of the ALPACA contract (April 30) and the delisting time on Binance (May 2), let's deduce the direction of the ALPACA manipulators' next operations!
In fact, the manipulators' strategy choices need to comprehensively consider the dimensions of funding rate harvesting, contract position structure, and liquidity control.
The following is a deduction based on market game theory (Note: purely speculative, not for trading reference)
I. The core logic of the manipulators to maintain price
1⃣ The continuous siphoning of the funding rate black hole
1) Assuming the current funding rate of the ALPACA perpetual contract is fixed at -2%/2 hours (the highest situation currently, with a cumulative -24% over 24 hours), shorts with ten times leverage need to pay 240% in interest costs daily.
If the manipulators maintain the current price until April 30, they can consume all the margin of the shorts solely through rate income.
For example, if the average short position opens at $0.2, after three days, it will need to pay 72% in rate costs (24% × 3 days). Even if the price drops by 30% (to $0.14), the shorts will still incur losses (30% profit - 72% cost = -42% net loss).
2) Assuming the current rate is -0.3810% every 2 hours (this is the rate level as of April 27. Therefore, the cumulative rate is -4.572% over 24 hours), compared to the previous extreme negative rate of -2%/2 hours, the cost of short positions has been significantly reduced.
So, shorting with ten times leverage and holding until forced liquidation on April 30 (about 3 days)
Total rate cost: -4.572% × 3 days × 10 times = -137.16% (the price needs to drop at least 137% to cover costs)
Price drop requirement: Assuming the current price is $0.2, it needs to drop to $0.046 (a drop of 77%) to make a profit.
2⃣ The self-locking effect of contract position structure
Currently, the ALPACA contract holding amount reaches $120 million, far exceeding its spot market value (about $26 million). This distorted 'contract/market value ratio' means that the short positions are deeply locked, and manipulators only need a small amount of capital to maintain price stability. If they crash the market at this time, they would need to spend real money to sell tokens, which may trigger concentrated short liquidations (buying spot to hedge), causing the price to rebound and weakening rate profits.
3⃣ The leverage advantage of liquidity exhaustion After the Binance delisting announcement, the liquidity of ALPACA on other exchanges has drastically shrunk (Gate.io, MEXC daily trading volume less than $2 million). Manipulators can maintain the price through cross-platform price differences. For example, creating a $0.2 'false price' on Binance while selling a small amount of tokens at $0.1 on Gate.io can keep the market anchored to the Binance price.
II. The potential risks and profit imbalances of the manipulators' market crash
1⃣ The zero-sum game between spot selling pressure and funding rate profits
Assuming the manipulators choose to crash the market before April 30, they need to sell at least $30 million worth of tokens (accounting for 15% of the circulation) to trigger a price halving. However, this would cause the funding rate to drop to zero rapidly (allowing shorts to profit and close their positions), halting the rate income. In contrast, maintaining the price for three days could harvest about 72% of the rate with no risk, while crashing the market would incur losses from spot selling, significantly worsening the profit-risk ratio.
2⃣ The liquidity siphoning of forced contract liquidation
When the forced liquidation of contracts occurs on April 30, all open positions will be settled at the marked price (currently $0.0675). If the manipulators crash the price to $0.05, they can only arbitrage $0.0175 per token (from $0.0675 to $0.05), which is far below the rate income. More dangerously, crashing the market may trigger the exchange's risk control mechanism, leading to early delisting of tokens and disrupting the overall plan.
3⃣ The reverse sniping of retail investor FOMO
The current price of ALPACA has deviated from the fundamentals (the project's official website has not been updated in six months) and is purely driven by capital game. If the manipulators crash the market, it may be interpreted by retail investors as 'the last drop', triggering a flood of bottom-fishing capital, inadvertently pushing the price up. In fact, the price rebounded from $0.029 to $0.2173, which was a result of the resonance between retail investor FOMO and the manipulators' pump.
III. Deducing the ultimate strategy for maximizing the manipulators' profits
Based on the above analysis, maintaining price + rate harvesting + precise detonation before contract liquidation is the most cost-effective combination:
Phase One (April 27-29):
Maintain the price in the range of $0.18-0.22 through small buy orders (daily $5-8 million), creating a false impression of 'anti-fall', enticing shorts to increase positions or new shorts to enter.
Simultaneously release vague positive news on social media such as 'project migrating to other chains' and 'community self-rescue' to strengthen bullish confidence.
Phase Two (Before April 30, 11:00)
Two hours before the forced liquidation of the contract, suddenly raising the price to $0.25-0.3 (consuming about $10 million in funds) triggers a massive short liquidation. Since the contract settlement price is a time-weighted average, a short-term pump can maximize liquidation profits.
At the same time, sell spot on other exchanges (about $20 million), using the price difference to achieve a dual harvest of 'contract liquidation profits + spot selling profits'.
Phase Three (May 1-2): Before the delisting of spot on Binance, repurchase tokens at $0.05-0.1 (consuming about $5 million) to reserve chips for creating a 'revival market' on other platforms in the future.
IV. Risk warning and retail investor responses
1⃣ Shorts are trapped in a deadlock
Current ALPACA short holders should wake up in time: if the price remains the same, their principal will be consumed by the funding rate at the time of liquidation on April 30;
If the price falls, it needs to drop more than 70% to be profitable, but the manipulators have the willingness and ability to prevent this scenario.
2⃣ Retail investors should not participate in the doomsday cycle
Even if the price experiences a brief decline, it may be a trap set by the manipulators to induce shorts. The game of ALPACA has entered the 'open card phase', and ordinary investors should stay away from contract trading to avoid becoming fuel for rate harvesting.
Summary:
The optimal strategy for the manipulators is to maintain the price until April 30, squeeze shorts through funding rates, and at the last moment before contract liquidation, pump the price for maximum profit. The essence of this game is to exploit the flaws in exchange rules and the lag in retail investor cognition, turning the delisting crisis into a harvesting tool. For market participants, the only rational choice is to stay away from the battlefield rather than gamble against the manipulators.
Thus, a great manipulation has become an art. If you have learned something, please help Naruto with a quick three-click support, encourage me, thank you, adoptive fathers 🤣🤣