#TariffsPause

Markets are pricing weaker growth and constrained policy, according to Goldman:

"The April 9 pause in reciprocal tariffs helped to arrest the sharp tightening in financial conditions and pull the US economy back from the brink of a clear slide into recession... But with levels of policy-induced uncertainty still high, consumer and business confidence at lows, and real income growth likely to compress, there is still a good chance that the economy tips into recession. We think full-blown recession would likely see the S&P 500 trade around 4600, HY credit spreads above 600bp and shorter maturity yields below 3%."