#TariffsPauseThe National Retail Federation of America expects import volumes to decrease by 20% in the second half of the year, and the country will face empty shelves if tariff policies continue at current levels.
U.S. retailers are warning that American consumers may once again face empty shelves and chaotic supply chains like during the COVID-19 period if President Donald Trump's tariffs on China remain at current levels.
NBC News reported on April 25 that data tracking ships from Port Optimizer indicated that companies had canceled shipments from China and halted new orders after Trump imposed a 145% tariff on most imports from China this month.
As a result, the number of cargo ships expected to arrive at the Port of Los Angeles is on track to decrease by 33% compared to the same period last year in the week ending May 10.
As usual, U.S. retailers will ramp up their orders for two significant periods at the end of this year: the back-to-school shopping season in the Fall and the Winter holiday season.
The ongoing decline is creating uncertainty about whether American shoppers will be able to find the items they are accustomed to in the coming months.
The National Retail Federation expects that the volume of imports will decrease by 20% in the second half of the year if tariffs continue at current levels.
Mr. Jonathan Gold, Vice President of Supply Chain and Customs Policy at the National Retail Federation, stated that some products likely to disappear from shelves in the coming months will be shoes, clothing, toys, and inexpensive electronics, items that have a high concentration of production in China.
Other perishable items from China, such as apple juice and fish, have limited shelf lives and are harder to stockpile for retailers.
The threat of empty shelves seems to have sounded the alarm within the White House.
Officials in the Trump administration seemed particularly concerned about product shortages during holidays, such as July 4th and Christmas.
After a meeting with major retailers this week, President Trump stated that he is considering reducing tariffs on China, although he has not taken any official action yet.
There are some retailers who ramped up their imports from China before tariffs were imposed, giving them extra time to get through the Summer, but this is difficult for smaller businesses, which often lack the funds or leverage with manufacturers.
Even if Trump lowers tariffs, the disruptions caused to the supply chain could take weeks or months to resolve, as it takes time for ships to cross the Pacific and for other parts of the supply chain to return to normal operations.
Mr. Dean Croke, chief analyst at DAT Freight and Analytics, stated that the decrease in import volume at the port will have a ripple effect on the rest of the shipping industry.
The surplus freight trucks, the decline in demand for drivers, along with slowdowns in other sectors of the economy, could cause drivers to leave the industry and contribute to a driver shortage later.