#特朗普暂停新关税 Market Immediate Reaction: U.S. stocks rebound significantly
The news of the tariff suspension has directly eased market concerns about an escalation of the trade war, with all three major U.S. stock indices soaring. The Nasdaq index saw a single-day increase of 12%, the largest single-day gain since 2001, the S&P 500 index rose by 9.52%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged nearly 3000 points. Technology stocks became the biggest beneficiaries, with Apple (AAPL.US) seeing its market value increase by $397 billion in one day, and Tesla (TSLA.US) experiencing a 22% rise in share price. The market believes this move may secure tariff exemptions or negotiation windows for companies reliant on global supply chains (like Apple), thereby easing cost pressures.
2. Scope and Limitations of Policy
The tariff suspension policy only applies to countries that have not taken retaliatory measures against the U.S. (such as Australia, the UK, Singapore, etc.), while China, the EU, Canada, and others continue to face high tariffs. For example, China imposes tariffs of 34%-46% on U.S. goods, while the U.S. has raised tariffs on Chinese goods to as high as 125%. This selective suspension has led to market differentiation: on one hand, trade pressures for some countries are temporarily alleviated; on the other hand, U.S.-China trade frictions continue, and related industries (such as semiconductors and automobiles) still face risks of supply chain disruptions.
3. Short-term Economic Effects and Long-term Uncertainties
1. Short-term Benefits and Market Volatility
The suspension of tariffs has reduced short-term cost pressures for companies, especially in industries reliant on imported components (such as automobiles and technology). For example, during the period when customs duties were suspended due to technical failures in the U.S. customs system, the global supply chain received a breathing space, leading to an additional 5% rise in U.S. stocks. However, the volatility of the policy (as indicated by the market turbulence triggered by fake news on April 7) suggests that investors still have doubts about the sustainability of trade policies.
2. Long-term Economic Risks Not Eliminated
Macroeconomic analysis from招商 indicates that the tariff suspension is more a reflection of Trump's 'carrot and stick' negotiation strategy, and the long-term tariff goals (like revitalizing manufacturing) remain unchanged. The model predicts that if tariff policies persist, U.S. GDP may cumulatively decline by 5.97% within 3-5 years, and global trade volume may shrink by 5%-7%. Additionally, companies like Boeing and Tesla face risks of market share loss and profit decline due to high costs from supply chain relocation.
4. Subsequent Negotiations and Policy Directions
The tariff suspension is seen as a strategy by the Trump administration to buy time for negotiations. Future points of concern include:
Progress in China-U.S. negotiations: China has filed a lawsuit with the WTO, and if both sides fail to reach an agreement, the tariff war may escalate further.
Adjustment of Federal Reserve Policy: High inflation may force the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts, and persistently high rates will suppress market liquidity.
Shift in U.S. domestic policy: Trump may shift the focus of policy from tariffs to tax cuts and financial deregulation to boost the economy.
Conclusion
Trump's suspension of tariffs has temporarily eased market panic, but the uncertainty of the policy and long-term structural risks (such as supply chain disruption and inflationary pressures) still pose threats to the global economy. Investors need to be wary of potential volatility caused by policy reversals, while also paying attention to the effectiveness of companies' coping strategies (such as localized production and cost transfer).
