What stage are we in now?
From a macro perspective, we divide the Bitcoin market cycle into three key stages:
Bear Market Stage: Deep Correction (70-90%)
Recovery Stage: Reclaiming Historical Highs
Bull Market Growth Stage: Parabolic Rise After Breaking Previous Highs
The bear markets of 2015 and 2018 lasted approximately 13-14 months each. Our recent bear market cycle also lasted 14 months. The recovery stage in historical cycles typically requires 23 to 26 months, and we are currently within this typical recovery time window.
However, the performance of this bull market stage has been somewhat unusual. Bitcoin did not immediately experience a surge after breaking the historical high; instead, it underwent a correction. This may indicate that the market is building a higher low before entering a steeper upward channel in the exponential growth stage. If we refer to the average durations of 9 months and 11 months in previous cycles for the exponential stage, assuming the bull market can continue, we expect the potential peak of this cycle may occur around September 2025.
This cycle is slower and more volatile than previous cycles, but it has not broken historical structural patterns. Bitcoin seems to be poised for another upward move, and if the traditional market does not further deteriorate, it may reach a new peak in the third quarter or early fourth quarter.
From a macro perspective, we divide the Bitcoin market cycle into three key stages:
Bear Market Stage: Deep Correction (70-90%)
Recovery Stage: Reclaiming Historical Highs
Bull Market Growth Stage: Parabolic Rise After Breaking Previous Highs
The bear markets of 2015 and 2018 lasted approximately 13-14 months each. Our recent bear market cycle also lasted 14 months. The recovery stage in historical cycles typically requires 23 to 26 months, and we are currently within this typical recovery time window.
However, the performance of this bull market stage has been somewhat unusual. Bitcoin did not immediately experience a surge after breaking the historical high; instead, it underwent a correction. This may indicate that the market is building a higher low before entering a steeper upward channel in the exponential growth stage. If we refer to the average durations of 9 months and 11 months in previous cycles for the exponential stage, assuming the bull market can continue, we expect the potential peak of this cycle may occur around September 2025.
This cycle is slower and more volatile than previous cycles, but it has not broken historical structural patterns. Bitcoin seems to be poised for another upward move, and if the traditional market does not further deteriorate, it may reach a new peak in the third quarter or early fourth quarter.
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