Analysis and probability that 1 of these altcoins becomes daily use;
Fet
Hbar
Xlm
Sui
Sol
Analyzing the probability of an altcoin like Fetch.ai (FET), Hedera (HBAR), Stellar (XLM), Sui (SUI), or Solana (SOL) becoming a daily use currency requires evaluating multiple factors: adoption, technology, use cases, scalability, partnerships, regulation, and market dynamics. Below is a detailed analysis of each and an estimate of their probability of daily use, based on recent information and crypto market trends up to April 2025.
Criteria for daily use
For an altcoin to be used daily (e.g., in payments, transactions, or decentralized applications), it must meet:
Scalability: Ability to handle a high volume of transactions with low fees and high speed.
Adoption: Acceptance by merchants, institutions, or individual users.
Infrastructure: Integration into wallets, exchanges, and payment systems.
Practical use cases: Real applications that encourage everyday use (cross-border payments, DeFi, IoT, etc.).
Stability and regulation: Regulatory clarity and market confidence to avoid extreme volatility.
Analysis of each altcoin
1. Fetch.ai (FET)
Description: Fetch.ai focuses on artificial intelligence (AI) and decentralized economy, connecting IoT devices and autonomous agents to perform automatic transactions.
Strengths:
Innovation in AI and automation, with applications in sectors like mobility, energy, and health.
Recent merger with Ocean Protocol and SingularityNET to form the Artificial Superintelligence Alliance, increasing its visibility and resources.
In 2024, FET performed notably, although its price fell 38% in the last 90 days (up to July 2024).
Weaknesses:
Its use case (decentralized AI) is specialized and not directly oriented to daily payments or retail transactions.
High competition in the AI sector (e.g., The Graph, Chainlink).
Lack of mass adoption in merchants or payment systems.
Daily usage probability: Low (10-15%). Although FET has enormous potential in AI applications, its focus is not on everyday transactions, which limits its adoption as a daily use currency in the short term.
2. Hedera (HBAR)
Description: Hedera is a high-performance public network that uses Hashgraph, designed for enterprises with applications in payments, tokenization, and governance.
Strengths:
High performance: up to 10,000 transactions per second (TPS) with low fees (~$0.0001).
Enterprise adoption: Partnerships with IBM, Google Cloud, and Standard Bank for cases such as cross-border payments and asset tokenization.
In 2023, HBAR rose by 246%, showing institutional interest.
Strong governance with the Hedera Governing Council (large corporations).
Weaknesses:
Perceived centralization due to its governance model, which may deter some users from the crypto community.
Competition with networks like Solana and Ethereum, which have greater adoption in DeFi.
Lower visibility in the retail market compared to other altcoins.
Daily usage probability: Moderate (30-40%). Hedera has strong potential for enterprise payments and tokenization, but its adoption in retail or by individual users is currently limited.
3. Stellar (XLM)
Description: Stellar is designed for fast and low-cost cross-border payments, connecting financial institutions and unbanked users.
Strengths:
Fast transactions (3-5 seconds) and extremely low fees (~$0.00001).
Partnerships with institutions like MoneyGram and Circle (USDC), reinforcing its use in remittances and international payments.
In 2023, XLM rose by 203%, indicating market interest.
Focus on financial inclusion, with projects in emerging markets.
Weaknesses:
Direct competition with Ripple (XRP), which has greater adoption in the financial sector.
Dependence on institutional partnerships, which may slow retail adoption.
Price volatility and less hype compared to altcoins like SOL.
Daily usage probability: High (50-60%). Stellar is well-positioned for cross-border payments and remittances, with a solid infrastructure and key partnerships. Its focus on financial inclusion could drive daily use, especially in low-banking regions.
4. Sui (SUI)
Description: Sui is a layer 1 blockchain focused on scalability and DeFi, gaming, and NFTs applications, with a design aimed at instant transactions.
Strengths:
High scalability: up to 297,000 TPS in tests, with transactions finalized in ~0.4 seconds.
Designed for mass consumer applications (gaming, social networks, DeFi).
Growing ecosystem of dApps and backing from Mysten Labs, with blockchain experience.
Weaknesses:
Relatively new project with lower adoption compared to Solana or Ethereum.
In July 2024, SUI fell 35% in 90 days, showing weakness in the market.
Intense competition in the layer 1 space (Solana, Aptos, Polygon).
Daily usage probability: Moderate (25-35%). Sui has great technical potential, but its ecosystem is still under development. It could gain traction in gaming or DeFi, but daily use depends on greater adoption of its dApps.
5. Solana (SOL)
Description: Solana is a layer 1 blockchain known for its high speed and low cost, with a robust ecosystem in DeFi, NFTs, and Web3 applications.
Strengths:
Leading scalability: ~65,000 theoretical TPS, with transactions of ~$0.00025 and confirmation times of ~0.4 seconds.
Mature ecosystem: Over 1,000 dApps, including Serum, Raydium, and Magic Eden.
Great adoption: In 2024, Solana attracted $120 million in bridges from other blockchains. In 2023, SOL rose by 187%.
Institutional investment: Companies like Janover acquired $21 million in SOL.
Weaknesses:
History of network interruptions (although stability has improved since 2023).
Competition with Ethereum and other layer 1s like SUI and Aptos.
Volatile price, with recent corrections (5% drop in 24 hours in July 2024).
Daily usage probability: Very high (70-80%). Solana is the altcoin with the highest probability of daily use due to its scalability, diverse ecosystem, and adoption in DeFi, NFTs, and payments. Projects like Solana Pay are specifically designed for retail transactions.
Market context (April 2025)
Bitcoin dominance: BTC dominance reached 60.6% in November 2024, indicating that altcoins have underperformed in the short term. This suggests that capital is still mainly flowing into BTC, but a decrease in dominance could trigger an "altcoin season."
Altcoin season index: In January 2025, the Altcoin Season Index was at 47/100, showing a trend toward a possible altcoin season, although Bitcoin remains strong.
Regulation: Regulatory uncertainty affects altcoins more than BTC, especially in the U.S. post-elections. Altcoins like XLM and HBAR, with business-oriented approaches, could benefit from regulatory clarity.
Macro trends: The expansion of global liquidity and pro-crypto narrative (e.g., Trump's stance) could boost the crypto market in 2025, benefiting altcoins with solid use cases.
Comparative probability and recommendation
Altcoin
Daily usage probability
Key reasons
Solana (SOL) 70-80%
Scalability, mature ecosystem, adoption in DeFi and payments (Solana Pay).
Stellar (XLM) 50-60%
Cross-border payments, partnerships with institutions, low fees.
Hedera (HBAR) 30-40%
High performance, enterprise adoption, but limited in retail.
Sui (SUI) 25-35%
Great technical potential, but young ecosystem and lower adoption.
Fetch.ai (FET) 10-15%
Focus on AI, not on daily transactions; limited retail adoption.
Recommendation:
Solana (SOL) is the strongest candidate for daily use due to its robust infrastructure, massive adoption, and practical applications like Solana Pay. It is ideal for payments, DeFi, and NFTs.
Stellar (XLM) is a solid option for cross-border payments, especially in regions with low banking penetration, but its adoption depends on more partnerships.
Hedera (HBAR) and Sui (SUI) have long-term potential, but require greater retail or dApp adoption to be relevant for daily use.
Fetch.ai (FET) is less likely, as its focus on AI is not oriented toward everyday transactions.
Always do your own research (DYOR) and consider diversifying to mitigate risks.
