*Ethereum Short-Term Trend Analysis: Bullish**

In April 2025, Ethereum (ETH) experienced significant volatility, with prices rebounding from $1,385 to $1,750, an increase of 26.3%, mainly driven by three factors:

1. **Short Squeeze and Technical Repair**: The CME futures basis plummeted from 20% to 5%, with arbitrage capital withdrawing and releasing liquidity, while whales increased their holdings around $1,500, forming a key support level.

2. **Macro Policy Shift**: Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have risen (probability increased to 61.8%), and the weakening dollar is driving funds into crypto assets, resonating with the U.S. stock market.

3. **Pectra Upgrade Catalyst**: The upgrade launched on April 25 will optimize transaction efficiency (TPS reaching 20,000 transactions/second) and reduce Gas fees to $0.001, attracting DeFi locked value back up to $46.7 billion, with institutional capital accelerating into the RWA sector.

**Short-Term Risks and Challenges**:

- If the price fails to hold the $1,688 support, it may retest the $1,500 low.

- Inflation pressure unresolved: Annual supply still growing at 0.805%, issuance continuously exceeds destruction, and Layer 2 is diverting mainnet activity.

**Conclusion**: With the Pectra upgrade implementation combined with interest rate cut expectations, the short-term outlook is bullish towards the $1,830-$1,930 range, but caution is warranted regarding selling pressure before the upgrade and regulatory uncertainties.