Hello everyone, I am Nini-Cry
Market trends are not based on guessing; strategies need to be substantial. I will analyze market trends and layout in crypto~
Spot thinking:Explore potential coins, seize low position opportunities, reasonably build positions and wait for the flowers to bloom.
Contract layout:Observe market direction, unlock long and short signals, take profit and stop loss steadily.
Market analysis:
Bitcoin:
Yesterday, Bitcoin quickly rebounded to around 94,000 after hitting a low of about 91,600; today, observe the situation of breaking through 94,000; if it cannot break through, continue to look at the range of 94,500-88,000 for consolidation.
Ethereum:
Yesterday's expectation was to pull back to 1,700; the lowest point reached 1,720 and then rebounded back to 1,970, which was in line with expectations. If it doesn't reach 1,830-1,774 during the hourly level rebound, there will be a sell at 2; today, continue to look for a pullback to 1,700.
Altcoins:
Altcoins retreated about 10% yesterday; the greater the market fluctuations, the higher the risk of losses. Currently, market participants are still in a losing state, and the recent rise has more been a recovery trend. In operations, patience must be maintained; do not jump around; once the jump is wrong, you will basically miss the recovery trend. Fast is slow~~
Highlights recap:
TON: Currently risen to 3.28, gaining 5% profit~ Stable holders can take partial profits.
SUI: Informed the babies in the group in advance to enter, currently surged directly to 3.73, gaining 25% profit~~ Congratulations to the babies😘😘 Can expand the perspective; stable holders can take partial profits.
Today's sharing:
Epic: The trend is oscillating and consolidating, with short-term bullish momentum feeling like it wants to take off. After a quick sell-off, there’s a washout; it's a high-control dog owner situation. Entering to take a gamble, currently at 1.42, stop loss at 1.35, target at 1.5.
The token analysis I share only represents my personal views, aiming to provide references for targets that may have upward potential recently. All mentioned take-profit/stop-loss points are personal strategies. Investment carries risks; please make rational decisions based on your own risk tolerance. The market is unpredictable; let’s grow together~
Today's market highlights:
1. Trump's big mouth got swollen; he said he was negotiating with China and would achieve significant results, but was immediately denied by the Chinese officials, saying it hadn't even started, so how could there be significant results?
2. Trump is left with just his mouth; recently he mentioned considering a tiered tariff plan for China. I initially thought it was a carefully calculated trade war by his think tank, but it turned out to be just feelers.
3. Fed's Harker: If economic data clarifies, the Fed may lower interest rates in June. Currently, it seems highly likely that rates will be cut in June, and if that’s the case, the current cryptocurrency trend is on the road to reversal.
4. The blockchain has been very lively these days; yesterday, $SX caused many communities to both FUD and jump in, with the admin pulling in some people like Musk and Trump to build a group on X, leading to various speculations, reaching a market cap of over 3M, and currently still alive with around 800k market cap.
5. Last night, the artist grizzle_art posted meme #trencher, and it was quite good, with the highest market cap reaching over 8M, currently in the FOMO stage. 8ncucXv6U6epZKHPbgaEBcEK399TpHGKCquSt4RnmX4f
6. Various AI concepts have appeared on-chain again; #dpcore is an AI agent application store aimed at end users. This is not recommended for direct entry; it still needs thorough research.
7. #Nobody directly FOMOed last night, with FDV breaking through 30M at one point, currently pulling back around 10M; it can be observed further.
8. Currently, besides the general consensus on AI and memes in CEX, everything else is just market makers randomly trading. The strongest trends in public chain tracks are Sui, followed by POL and others.
9. Binance has launched a spot copy trading feature, and a wave of traffic and funds is on the way. Binance has newly launched the Alpha Point scoring system, which will determine wallet TGE and Alpha airdrop qualifications.
10. Coinbase has listed $MNT on its coin roadmap, and also launched $zora.
11. KaitoAI's new product YapdotMarket is quite interesting; it’s like the WEB2 version of Zhu Bajie, where project parties distribute promotional tasks on the platform, giving everyone a chance to earn.
Must-read for the evening:
The underlying logic and regulatory breakthroughs of the SOL ETF approval
Policy path: from 'regulatory sandbox' to mainstream financial tools
In April 2025, Canada took the lead in approving the SOL ETF with staking capabilities, while the US market underwent a fundamental shift in regulatory attitude towards Solana after the new SEC chairman took office. Unlike the previous path dependency of 'futures before spot' in the Ethereum ETF approval, this SOL ETF was approved directly in spot form, mainly thanks to:
Technical compliance breakthroughs: Solana's on-chain trading volume surpassed Ethereum for the first time in 30 days, the number of active addresses increased by 230% year-on-year, and its DAG consensus and sharding mechanism were recognized as 'functional commodities' by the CFTC.
Institutional endorsement strengthens the role of Wall Street giants like Bitwise in establishing Solana ETF trusts, clearly including Solana staking yields (annualized 7.63%) in asset pool design in their S1 application, distinguishing it from Grayscale's high fee (2.5%) ETH ETF.
Geopolitical catalysts: The 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' plan promoted by the Trump administration indirectly accelerated the approval of other public chain ETFs. To avoid being accused of 'selective enforcement,' the SEC was forced to bring Solana into the regulatory framework.
The butterfly effect of regulatory easing: The Fed revoked the 2022 cryptocurrency asset regulatory letter, allowing state banks to directly participate in Solana staking operations, providing crucial infrastructure for ETF liquidity injection. Data shows that since this policy was released, the scale of institutional-level Solana staking contracts has increased fourfold, with daily staking yields exceeding $12 million, directly offsetting the disadvantage of ETH's 3.1% staking return rate.
The 'bloodsucking' path of SOL ETF on the ETH ecosystem and quantitative analysis
The triple dimensions of fund diversion: ETF fund pool competition. According to Standard Chartered Bank's prediction, the SOL ETF will attract $18-24 billion in funds in its first year, while Grayscale's ETH ETF saw a net outflow of $870 million in one day in December 2024, forming a stark contrast between the two.
Migration of locked assets in DeFi protocols: Solana's on-chain DeFi TVL has surpassed $130 billion, with Lido Finance's (SOL) staking derivatives share growing by 67% compared to Q4 2024, while ETH's Lido (stETH) share decreased by 19%.
Shift in holdings between miners and whales: Data shows that the number of addresses holding over 100,000 SOL has increased by 15% in the past 30 days, while the number of ETH whale addresses has decreased by 8%, partly due to Solana's 'zero congestion fee' design reducing institutional holding costs.
The critical point of technological substitution: Solana's TPS peak has exceeded 65,000, forming a generational advantage over Ethereum's 30 TPS; its modular architecture reduces the deployment cost of Rollup solutions by 90%. This technological advantage is directly reflected in the explosion of on-chain applications:
AI + blockchain integration
The computing power leasing volume of the AI protocol RNDR on the Solana chain accounts for 43% of the entire network, while ETH's Akash Network only accounts for 17%;
Meme coin economic model
The market cap of Solana-based meme coin WIF grew by 320% in Q1 2025, and its 'liquidity equals dividends' mechanism attracted a large number of ETH ecosystem users to migrate.
The 'safe haven' effect of Bitcoin and the rebalancing of market sensitivity to policies: Bitcoin fell by $4,000 in one day on April 3 due to US tariff policies, but then formed support in the $82,000-$86,000 range.
This volatility reveals its positioning shift: institutional allocation weight is rising. Tether increased its BTC holdings by $700 million in Q1, with total holdings reaching $8 billion, while ETH holdings decreased by 12% during the same period.
ETF fund inflow resilience: BlackRock's IBIT maintained an average net inflow of $120 million per day during the tariff impact period, indicating that traditional finance's recognition of Bitcoin as 'digital gold' has not been shaken.
Structural risks of market differentiation: Altcoin bubble: In April, altcoins overall retreated by 15%-20%, but Solana ecosystem coins rose against the trend, such as the SUI token, which rose 54% in a month, highlighting the trend of capital concentrating on leading public chains.
Accumulation of leverage risks: Solana's perpetual contract funding rate has reached 0.25%/8h, with the liquidation rate for accounts using 5x leverage rising to 22%, far exceeding Bitcoin's 13%.
Regulatory-driven 'technology-capital' dual spiral evolution
The approval of the SOL ETF marks a shift in the cryptocurrency market from 'Bitcoin dominance' to 'multi-chain competition'. This process not only reshapes the capital flow paths but also drives an arms race in underlying technologies. Investors need to grasp the Solana ecological dividends while being wary of narrative risks brought by technological iteration, and find a dynamic balance between Bitcoin's risk-hedging properties and ETH's technological potential. The 2025 crypto market is essentially a three-way game of regulatory frameworks, institutional capital, and technological innovation; only by understanding this underlying logic can one capture excess returns amidst volatility.
Summary of today's trading insights:
The cryptocurrency world is a shura field; on the cusp of wind and waves, some become rich overnight, while others go to zero overnight.
1. Don't keep changing coins; resist the urge to move.
The coins you hold will eventually shine; constantly switching back and forth will either lead to selling low and buying high or missing out completely. Sometimes, holding steady is the most stable move.
2. Don't touch the coins that everyone is hyping
Is everyone in your friend circle, community, and X hyping a coin? Brother, the things on the hot search list are most likely at their high points. You can still hold on in a bull market, but a bear market can wipe you out in minutes.
3. Those claiming to multiply a hundred times are either scammers or fools.
"This coin can rise 100 times" — do you really believe that? If such a god coin exists, can you hold on to it? If it rises 5 times, you can't help but sell. Don't be fooled by empty promises.
4. Don't play contracts in a bull market; you won't make it to the end.
When the bull market really arrives, don't touch contracts, don’t ask why. Can you withstand drawdowns, washouts, and spikes? Most people die on the road, never even seeing the finish line.
5. When others are crazy, you need to stay calm.
When the whole network is FOMOing and fully invested, you need to stay calm and assess how much meat is left and whether it's worth it to rush in. Don't be envious; protecting your principal is the way to go.
6. Contract technical indicators are unreliable
When the market switches between bulls and bears, technical indicators become a joke. The so-called 'win rate signals' are all traps set by the market makers; the more you believe, the quicker you die.
7. Trust your own choices
There are many coins in a bull market; the key is to choose the right coins and hold on to them. As long as the coins don’t go to zero, you can withstand a bear market, and the bull market will surely surprise you.
8. Capital determines strategy.
With small funds below 100,000, you can take a gamble on some promising altcoins. If it exceeds 100,000, don’t be greedy; stabilizing mainstream assets is the real deal.
9. Remember, the trend is your friend.
80% of the time in the cryptocurrency world is spent in consolidation or decline; real profitable trends come only once or twice, and whether you can catch them depends on your ability to endure.
10. The ones who really make money are those who run fast at the end of the bull market.
In a bull market, not everyone makes money; those who really stabilize their earnings know when to run and when to take profits. Greed is the biggest killer in the crypto world.
PS: Surviving is the key to the next opportunity for wealth. Don’t dream of multiplying by hundreds every day; survive this cycle first. There are no gods in the crypto world, only risk control and luck~
Core circle
🔹 Current or strategy
Led by Zishen Secondary Market, focusing on discovering and identifying potential targets in advance, providing stable head investment combination plans.
🔹 Harmonious trading intentions
Professional traders provide real-time push notifications, accurately capturing market fluctuations, providing intraday trading strategies.
🔹 1-on-1
Personalized position management plan + priority trading alerts + systematic technical training, helping traders achieve professional progress.
With favorable winds, we shall naturally sail ahead; with heavy responsibilities, we need to spur our horses to quicken our pace!
