Weekly Review of the Cryptocurrency Market: Bitcoin's Weakest Halving, Stablecoin Reshuffle, New ETF Games, Is a Bull Market Still Far Away?

A year has passed since Bitcoin's halving, but the results have disappointed many: this cycle's increase is less than half of previous ones, lingering around $80,000 to $90,000, making it the weakest halving performance in history. Compared to a 7000% surge in 2012 and over 500% in 2020, Bitcoin in 2024 seems to be constrained by 'economic uncertainty'.

The policy direction in the beautiful country remains inconsistent; while there are signs of loosening regulations on crypto assets, the SEC has just postponed its decision on physical redemption ETFs and staking ETFs, adding more uncertainty to the market.

However, there is some good news:

1. Stablecoin Transformation: The trading volume of 'compliant stablecoins' like USDC and EURC, regulated by MiCA, has surged, reaching a historic high of $209 billion. Euro stablecoins have even outpaced the dollar in growth. Although fees remain high, the direction is correct, and compliant products are gradually capturing market share.

2. Is an ETH Staking ETF Coming? Last year's successful launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs ignited the market, and this year, many issuers have shifted their focus to ETH staking funds. If staking yields can be packaged into ETFs, the appeal of PoS assets (like SOL) will significantly increase. The SOLQ ETF in Canada saw explosive demand at launch, with Ark having made early preparations.

3. Signs of Market Maturity: Bitcoin's volatility has decreased from 200% in 2012 to 50% today. Although on-chain transaction fees have declined, the overall network security and miner stability are still improving. BTC is no longer as 'wild' as it once was; it is becoming a gradually maturing asset.

The halving performance has not met expectations, and ETFs are in a tug-of-war, but capital has not exited the market; instead, it is searching for new breakthroughs. Compliant stablecoins, ETH staking, and PoS ETFs may be the beginning of the next narrative.

A true bull market does not necessarily start with a bang; rather, it accumulates strength slowly and then suddenly explodes.