*Ethereum Price Prediction*
$11.8k by 2030
We now see ETH network revenues rising from an annual rate of $2.6B to $51B in 2030. Assuming ETH takes a 70% market among smart contract protocols, this implies a token price of $11.8k in 2030, which we discount to $5.3k today at a 12% cost of capital derived from ETH's recent beta.
Ethereum Valuation Methodology: Cash Flow Projections & FDV Calculation
We value Ethereum by estimating cash flows for the year that ended on 4/30/2030. We project Ethereum revenues, deduct
a global tax rate and a validator revenue cut and arrive at a cashflow figure. We then apply multiple estimates by applying a
long-term estimated cash flow yield of 7% minus the long-term crypto growth rate of 4%. We then arrive at the fully diluted
valuation (“FDV”) in 2030, divide the total by the expected number of tokens in circulation, and then discount the result
by 12% to 4/23/2023. You can see our revenue estimates and price targets in the table below with more detailed assumptions
in the Ethereum Valuation Scenarios table.
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