When will the bull market in the cryptocurrency world arrive?
Historical cycle reference (but not indicative of the future)
Bitcoin halving cycle: After the last three halvings (2012, 2016, 2020), a bull market appeared approximately 6-18 months later, with the next halving expected in April 2024. If history repeats itself, the end of 2024 to 2025 could be a potential window.
Market sentiment cycle: The cryptocurrency market typically experiences cycles of around 4 years (such as the 2017 ICO boom and the 2021 DeFi/NFT explosion), and the current cycle may extend until around 2025.
Potential factors influencing the bull market
Macroeconomics: The end of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle, declining inflation, and liquidity easing (such as interest rate cuts) may drive funds back into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Regulatory developments: Approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. (January 2024) and clarification of global regulatory frameworks (such as the EU's MiCA legislation) may attract institutional funds.
Technological innovation: Layer 2 scaling solutions (like Ethereum Rollups), new narratives (such as RWA real-world assets, AI + blockchain) may act as catalysts.
Capital flow: A rebound in stablecoin supply (like the market cap growth of USDT) is often seen as a precursor signal for capital entering the market.
Risks to be aware of
Black swan events: Geopolitical conflicts, exchange collapses (like the FTX incident), and stringent regulatory policies may disrupt the bull market.
Changes in market structure: Increased institutional dominance may lead to reduced volatility, synchronizing cycles more closely with traditional financial markets.
How to track market signals
On-chain data: Bitcoin holdings (HODLer accumulation), exchange balances (outflows indicating hoarding), MVRV ratio (valuation levels).
Derivatives market: Open interest in futures contracts, funding rates (to gauge leverage intensity).
Macroeconomic indicators: U.S. dollar index (DXY), U.S. Treasury yield, correlation with the Nasdaq index.
Summary: If the macro environment improves (such as a shift to easing by the Federal Reserve in 2024), the halving effect takes hold, and no significant negative events occur, the second half of 2024 to 2025 may be an observation window for a new bull market.
I am the Black Cat, having experienced multiple bull and bear cycles, with rich market experience in various financial fields, penetrating the fog of information to discover the real market. Seize more opportunities for wealth codes and discover truly valuable opportunities, don't miss out and regret it!
