The current market is in a tug-of-war between "macro narratives" and "internal industry dynamics". Short-term trends are highly sensitive, but from a long-term perspective, the narrative of Bitcoin's scarcity and the application penetration of blockchain technology remain the underlying logic. **Ordinary investors should give up the obsession with precisely predicting tops and bottoms, and instead reduce uncertainty through position control and track selection**, for example:

- 70% fund allocation to Bitcoin and Ethereum spot;

- 20% allocation to leading vertical tracks (such as Layer 2 and DeFi blue chips);

- 10% kept as cash to cope with extreme volatility.