Russia has lowered its forecasts for oil and gas export revenues for the period 2025-2027, a major source of funding for the state budget, due to falling oil prices, as revenues declined by 15 percent this year, according to a document issued by the Ministry of Economy.
The macroeconomic forecast document, on which the state budget is based, indicates that Russia expects to achieve revenues of $200.3 billion this year from oil and gas export sales, a decrease of 15 percent from both $235 billion for 2024 and its previous estimates in September.
The government expects to achieve revenues of $220.4 billion in 2026, $231 billion in 2027, and $244.1 billion in 2028, a decrease of 4 percent and 1.1 percent, and an increase of 2.6 percent respectively from previous estimates.
The Ministry of Economy had previously lowered its oil price forecasts for 2025 by about 17 percent, and the Russian Central Bank warned earlier in April that oil prices could face a period of weakness for several years.
Ural crude prices fell to their lowest levels since 2023 in April, reaching around $53 per barrel, and were trading below $60 last week.
The ministry also lowered its forecasts for Russian oil production in 2025 to 516 million tons (10.32 million barrels per day), a stable level year-on-year, down from previous forecasts of 518.6 million tons, according to the document.
The document showed that pipeline gas exports, which collapsed following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, will recover in 2025 to 89.1 billion cubic meters, up from 80.6 billion cubic meters in 2024 and 69.3 billion cubic meters in 2023.