Three weeks ago, I decided to make an entry into $BTC, guided by the analysis of its historical behavior, the reduction of supply on exchanges, and the current informational pulse. Today, after a sustained bullish behavior, the results begin to consolidate what many interpret as a new accumulation cycle.

Since then, Bitcoin has moved from lows near $76,600 to surpass $90,000 this week. Its all-time high was reached on January 20, 2025, when it touched $109,114.88 according to CoinMarketCap data. This surge coincides with a global economic situation characterized by inflationary tensions, expectations of new rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and signs of exhaustion in traditional markets.

  • BTC as a safe haven asset against the fragility of the dollar

Despite the annual inflation in the U.S. dropping to 2.4% in March, markets continue to operate under the weight of uncertainty. Growth data is not encouraging, and political pressure on the Fed has been constant amid the possibility of rate cuts in the second half of 2025. The dollar, for its part, shows signs of structural weakness, fueling interest in scarce and non-sovereign assets.

In this context, Bitcoin has reinforced its narrative as a store of value. It's no coincidence that large capital is considering it alongside gold, which also reached historical highs over $3,500 per ounce. While gold operates with traditional logic, BTC offers digital advantages and exponential growth in adoption, especially among new generations of investors.

  • Institutional entry: the new engine of the rally

A key point in this panorama is the record volume of institutional capital in Bitcoin. The approved spot ETFs at the beginning of 2024 continue to attract massive investment flows. Currently, the assets under management in BTC ETFs exceed $30 billion, and managers like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Ark Investment maintain an active position in this market.

In addition, a sustained decrease of BTC on exchanges is recorded, which suggests strategic accumulation by institutional wallets and long-term holders. According to Glassnode, the levels of BTC in circulation on exchange platforms are at their lowest since 2018.

  • Technical and psychological factors of the market

This is complemented by healthy technical behavior: the breaking of key resistances, the compression of volatility prior to the price jump, and a renewed bullish sentiment on social media, forums, and on-chain analysis. Although there is still caution due to the possibility of short-term corrections, the fundamentals of the asset remain strong.

As they say in the financial world: 'there's nothing more cowardly than a million dollars.' Capital flees from risk, and in such a volatile environment, Bitcoin is starting to be seen less as a speculative bet and more as a medium- to long-term protection policy.

  • What to expect from here on out?

The big question now is whether BTC will be able to maintain this momentum and consolidate a new support above $90,000. Some analysts project that if institutional interest remains, flows into ETFs continue, and macro conditions become more unstable, we will see BTC resume the path towards $100,000 and possibly set a new ATH before the end of 2025.

However, as always in crypto, risk is part of the game. Time and market action will tell whether this is the true cycle of institutionalization and maturity of Bitcoin or just another phase of temporary euphoria.

NFA. #BTC #SaylorBTCPurchase