This article is dedicated to like-minded individuals.
Preface:
Recently, I have been thinking about my core competitiveness because I used to worry about traffic and an uncertain future. Fortunately, I saw a good article on Saturday that answered my doubts and corrected my direction. Based on three years of professional trading in the stock market and two years of professional airdrops in the crypto sphere, I will share some of my systems—capital cognition.
Starting from 2024, I believe that as the industry gradually matures and develops, the future direction will inevitably enter a red ocean cycle, similar to other industries. The future will focus on systematization, specialization, and teamwork. I always believe there are opportunities in this market, but it is no longer simply about gaining.
In the past, many times, due to indecision about goals and plans, efficiency was low, paths were repeated, and execution was weak. I was deeply affected by this, but I was always pushed forward by anxiety, with no time to think and no confidence to pay for myself.
For example: At the end of last year, I suggested in the roundtable research group that we should pay attention to the development of the sui track and the spillover effect of wealth. At that time, we only discussed and researched some front-runners on defilama. I believe Wall Street has no fresh news; every round of narrative is just a change of facade. Therefore, sui should be in the sol era of 2023, summarizing historical horizontal comparisons. Its opportunities should be in core varieties similar to jup or w regarding sol's position, with official support making it easier to yield alpha. New concepts + strong teams = high valuations. However, there were few group members researching this aspect at the time, which did not promote it well, leading to missing the later sea elephant. My own reflection: not daring to choose, not daring to persist, not daring to take on responsibilities.
So, this weekend, calm down, set aside anxiety and haste, and make a summary and a plan. Walk your own path and stick to it, develop your own characteristics, and stop comparing yourself to others in areas where you are not good.
Enough talk, let's get to the main text!
This continues the traditional capital analysis methodology, performing multidimensional and systematic organization and analysis.
Core: Systematization, specialization, teamwork.
Key Point: Unity of Knowledge and Action.
1⃣ Knowledge is the beginning of action.
1. The Way: Refers to the laws that enable everything to function smoothly, the objective laws of the world's operation.
① Go with the flow (as the saying goes: the wise act according to the time, while the foolish act against reason)
Going with the flow can be divided into leveraging trends and creating trends.
Creating hype is not discussed here; it is somewhat distant from us and carries greater risk.
First talk about going with the flow: discovering trends, judging trends, leveraging trends (grasping favorable trends for yourself and seizing unfavorable trends for your competitors).
Go with the major trend: align with the main line, follow the mainstream, follow the core.
Example: In August 2024, the dogs of the ton ecosystem emerged, sweeping the primary market of Fall 2024 with short time, low difficulty, and high returns. The dogs are the core project on the ton main line (popularity, heat). Mainstream: refers to the various hype of Binance (super high investment returns of ten thousand bucks in twenty days, using money to buy marketing and hype) with low difficulty (not checking scripts) to leverage trends (make money).
Counter small trends: counter emotions (fomo, fud), counter differences (mainstream views are not consistent), counter herd mentality (independent thinking)
Detailed explanation: Countering emotions means going against human nature, taking what others abandon, competing for what others strive for (often alpha emerges from neglected places, entering through narrow gates, and cultivating thin fields, but often retreats start at the fomo peak after reaching on exchanges like Binance, turning towards the next storm). This mainly analyzes the main capital's operational thinking.
Summary: The profit-making effect is inseparable from the main line and core, but it does not mean that one should charge ahead with the crowd. This means there is no competitiveness in terms of funding, technology, information, etc., in front of the public. Remember last year's move (four hundred tasks were fud), the recent wayfinder, including the aforementioned dogs; this kind of fast and easy often comes from entering through a narrow gate. Opportunities arise from differences, while going with the main trend means aligning with the major directional layout, and countering small trends means entering through a narrow gate.
② Investment or speculation? It's about betting on probabilities!
Learn to follow the above trends, but still find it difficult to make full use of them. Of course, it won't be that simple; explaining the logic and causes of a matter is complex, not simply a monism but a pluralism. Whether first-tier or second-tier, it is a game of investment and speculation. So how to improve the win rate, that is the meaning of betting on probabilities.
First, look at the degree of cooperation between the main line and core. The timing of my scripts on dogs coincided with Binance's ton activity (launching spot and twenty-day finance). In other words, if Binance does not create hype, dogs will not have much extra premium, nor will anyone compare it to shib. This is leveraging the main line and core's cooperation in going with the flow.
The so-called going with the flow: getting the right core at the right time = the right result.
First: Timing, project selection, profit-loss ratio, and risk control are the four essential elements.
Timing: means choosing the right and appropriate time to act. The market has periods of calm; it is not always suitable for betting. Therefore, choosing a good time can improve the win rate.
Project selection: Which projects are core projects that cannot be avoided, and this time participating in this project earns from vc or the market, earning from speculation or investment.
Profit-loss ratio: Calculate the cost accurately. I used to not calculate and missed the next opportunity. The higher the profit-loss ratio, the more points you earn.
Risk control: As someone who never does staking, I simply cannot implement risk control measures, making it hard to persuade myself to take action. Persuading oneself is very important; it's not just simple following.
Second: Follow four trends.
Go with the major trend (overall bullish or bearish atmosphere or market index).
Follow emotions (is the current phase one of preparation for a rise or a retreat after a climax?)
Follow the style of profit-making effects (the four kings of L2, key facilities of sol, speculative coordination of ton, and emerging mining of sui are all current market styles).
Follow your own path (do so by leveraging your resources and strengths; don't force yourself to do what you cannot, like borrowing money for staking, or testing networks when you have no time, or using scripts when you lack technical skills) is often the reason for not arguing. Everyone has different strengths, and you must integrate your resources well; after all, others won't pay for me.
Writing here, I find it hard to stop. Clearly explaining a system and a logic requires tens of thousands of words. I will write briefly later, and it will be reflected one by one in the subsequent plans and reviews.
Note:
Core: Continuously imitate the profit-making effect's bullish momentum; finding the largest one is the market's main line and direction.
Thinking pattern: Regardless of the myriad changes, Wall Street has no fresh news; it is all an evolution of profit-making effects. Understanding core issues and approaching problems will make it easier to find the answers you want.
Market consensus: The most professional, smartest, and advanced market synergy in the market (a professional team adept at launching and imitating various profit-making effects, mainly composed of several core short-term speculative funds and several leading teachers guiding or leveraging market sentiment and hotspots to sell).
Summary: Studying market changes, studying market reactions, does not distinguish between first-tier or second-tier, on-chain or off-chain, because it is all a capital game played with money by people. No matter how the core changes, human nature does not change; the tendencies towards profit, fear, greed, and herd mentality remain unchanged. Therefore, it helps to grow quickly and understand the essence of the market, enhancing cognition and understanding, and participating in the capital market inevitably involves studying the game.
2. Law: Methodology.
All of the above are ideological (cognitive) exchanges. How to execute specifically needs to enter the legal level, but the above is the primary and most important. Where there is a way without skills, one can still seek; where there are skills without a way, one cannot seek. It is necessary to clarify that there is no holy grail here, and no one-size-fits-all dragon-slaying technique. The so-called big shots are simply those who are more correct in every judgment and choice than you, which means that judgment and choice cannot be separated from the aforementioned cognition and the methodology of this article.
Question:
How to quickly capture useful information?
How to choose and track projects.
How to build your own system.
How to improve one's cognition
Answer:
① Reviewing is the fastest method of growth, summarizing historical major projects, summarizing self-awareness growth. The more you summarize, the more you know who is deceiving you. Stop thinking that you know nothing and can easily get rich; it will only lead you to the abyss.
② Use some time to observe the initial profit-making effects of the market, how to choose directions and how to develop forms, analyze strengths and weaknesses. Through the review of ①, you will discover many patterns; don't doubt it, that is normal. Wall Street has no fresh news; every day is a replay of history. Find patterns, grasp patterns, replicate patterns.
③ Methodology of observation: macro and micro, whole and part, subjective and objective; understand your individual position and changes in strength within the whole, and how the overall changes affect you.
Speaking briefly again, I fear it may turn into empty talk. As the old saying goes, you can convey a thousand volumes of books in one sentence, but it takes a long time to clarify this one sentence. For example: Macroeconomics: The big environment sets the stage, the hotspots perform, and relatively easy opportunities to participate are all produced by the environment's cooperation. Therefore, good hunters wait well. (Just look at the milk brother.) When the environment is good—cooperation is good—topics are good—profits are made (not only with dirt-dog coins, airdrops are like this, just that the cycles are larger and longer).
④ After having a feeling, it is about continuous practice, discovering first, judging first, participating first.
⑤ Capital never sleeps: Some people feel bad about the market and will rest; in fact, professional funds fight when the market is good and summarize and learn when it is bad. Capital never rests; it is always brewing the next wave of storms, so don't worry about missing opportunities; there will always be opportunities each month and week. You just need to wait for your opportunity.
⑥ Cycle: Where there are highs, there are lows; there is no perpetual rise or fall. Most progress in a wave-like manner. Using cycles is like seasons; you can reasonably arrange early layouts. Spring sowing, autumn harvesting, summer growing, winter storing.
⑦ Emotions: Development phase, retreat phase, fomo, fud form a circular human emotional map. By leveraging emotions, one can pick up bargains and enter through narrow gates.
So much to write, I'm running out of time.
3. Skills: Tools
Skills are the most common tools; there's nothing much to say. It's like a worker's gloves, a driver's license, or a chef's pot.
Simplicity does not mean uselessness. The earlier increase of sea elephants is precisely because there was a lack of skills to find out that they were a supporting arm of sui.... Tools shape our way of understanding the world, and understanding guides our actions.
To do a good job, one must first sharpen their tools; let's begin.
① Infrastructure-related:
Computer: https://x.com/0x_Northland/status/1869600775024034300
Fingerprint: https://x.com/0x_Northland/status/1892152480538169736
Finger: https://x.com/0x_Northland/status/1892152480538169736
Three-piece set: https://x.com/0x_Northland/status/1892413884839186759
Three scenarios: https://x.com/0x_Northland/status/1892413884839186759
Nurturing wallets: https://x.com/0x_Northland/status/1875822725010485267
② Source of information: https://x.com/0x_Northland/status/1877535897891254596
（2） Trust and Mystery: https://x.com/0x_Northland/status/1877535897891254596
③ Tool inquiry: https://x.com/0x_Northland/status/1894593381122412608
（3） Tools and Equipment: https://x.com/0x_Northland/status/1894593381122412608
④ Anti-witch: https://x.com/0x_Northland/status/1795645894370767010
（4） Anti-Priestess: https://x.com/0x_Northland/status/1795645894370767010
All the above compilations in Google Docs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10RVUQrs5g0fHGf51AZ5_0eHVA_PiuSwqSD2OQOQMns8/edit?usp=sharing
Quantity owned: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10RVUQrs5g0fHGf51AZ5_0eHVA_PiuSwqSD2OQOQMns8/edit?usp=sharing
2⃣ Action is the essence of knowledge.
Wang Yangming realized the unity of knowledge and action in Longchang, meaning knowing what is right and persisting in doing it. In fact, many times we feel pain because we think we do not know; in reality, knowing what is right but not being able to do it is not easy either. Understanding the above reasoning is still far from making money; cognition cannot directly turn into money. It needs to be continuously corrected in practice, leading to a growth process of practical cognition and further practice.
So how to act in the capital field? It is to practice more and avoid a gambler's mindset, always wanting to achieve everything in one stroke. The more you do and endure, the more you will naturally gain your insights. For example, after doing 100 projects, would you still need to ask others if this project is doable?
The cat-loving community often praises people for their high execution ability, not prejudging and trying every single thing, improving execution ability, and gaining positive feedback in the rewards.
Improve execution ability:
1. First, correct your mindset. Don't think about getting rich easily or randomly. If you want to earn money while being lazy, you will just end up being harvested.
2. Make your own choices, don't just follow the teacher; the teacher can endure what you cannot. The teacher may not fear spot trading, but if you really fear it,
3. No prejudice; prejudice means you are very confident in your own cognition, which often leads to cognitive pitfalls. What if you are on the peak of ignorance?
4. Clarify desires, make a plan, and take action immediately. What are your needs? How can you reach them? Will you persist every day?
5. Improve self-awareness; you are not much smarter than others. What you earn is a gift from the market. Never deceive yourself; do what suits you. There are not many ways to earn money in the capital market through hard work; making profits from airdrops is one.
6. What to do if you don't understand? No worries. People are at different stages, and stepping into pitfalls is fine.
7. I am just an ordinary person; I can only earn the money that most people earn. This statement can save you a lot of tuition fees.
8. Today, just be stronger than yesterday; that is hope.
9. Hard work does not guarantee success, but not working hard guarantees failure.