The tariff war raises global inflation. Will the myth of Bitcoin as 'digital hard currency' be shattered?
1. Increased demand for safe-haven assets
Market sentiment driven: Escalating trade wars and concerns about economic recession may prompt investors to seek safe-haven assets. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are often seen as 'digital gold' and may attract capital inflows during traditional market turbulence.
2. Dollar fluctuations and inflation expectations
Possibility of a weaker dollar: If the tariff war weighs down U.S. economic growth, the Federal Reserve may restart easing policies, leading to dollar depreciation. As a non-sovereign asset, cryptocurrencies may benefit from a weak dollar.
If easing policies boost inflation expectations, Bitcoin's fixed supply characteristics may enhance its appeal.
3. Corporate demand for capital flow
Companies affected by tariffs may explore cryptocurrencies for cross-border settlement to avoid traditional banking system fees and delays, indirectly enhancing demand for practical use cases.
4. Macroeconomic chain reactions
If U.S. stocks pull back due to declining corporate profits, some capital may flow into the cryptocurrency market, especially as institutional investors have included it in their asset allocations.
5. Policy uncertainty catalyzes volatility
Short-term price fluctuations: The erratic policies of the Trump administration may exacerbate market uncertainty, and the cryptocurrency market may experience high volatility, but the long-term trend depends on fundamentals.
6. Counterpoints and limiting factors
Market maturity limitations: The market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is still far smaller than traditional assets, and significant capital inflows require time, with limited short-term effects.
Regulatory dynamics: If the U.S. implements regulatory measures targeting cryptocurrencies, it may offset the benefits brought by the tariff war.
Economic anxiety and changes in monetary policy expectations triggered by the tariff war may provide temporary benefits to the cryptocurrency market, especially in scenarios of rising safe-haven sentiment or a weakening dollar.
The actual impact needs to be assessed in conjunction with the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, global market interconnections, and developments in the cryptocurrency sector itself.
In the short term, attention should be paid to whether Bitcoin's sensitivity to traditional market fluctuations has increased and changes in the adoption rate of stablecoins in cross-border trade.
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