Who will swerve first?

Trump and Powell are locked in a classic game theoretic model of "chicken," where each must choose whether to swerve or go straight.

Instead of two cars on a collision course, we're risking a deep recession.

Trump can reduce the suggested tariff rates, while JPow can drop interest rates.

Scenario analysis:

1. (2, 2) Powell drops rates and Trump avoids high tariffs. Both receive a moderate payoff.

2. (1, 3) Powell drops rates while Trump imposes tariffs. Trump “wins” more (3), Powell gains less (1).

3. (3, 1) Powell holds rates high while Trump refrains from tariffs. Powell “wins” more (3), Trump gains less (1).

4. (0, 0) Powell refuses to drop rates and Trump imposes tariffs—a worst-case scenario that harms both players.

The question remains: who will swerve first?