#特朗普施压鲍威尔 When the great Master Trump gets ruthless, he even messes with his own people! The China-U.S. tariff war is purely nonsensical.

Regarding the return of manufacturing, apart from a few high-end manufacturing sectors having some hope, there’s no chance for mid-to-low-end manufacturing. Even if we enter the robot era, there’s still no chance because the best, most cost-effective industrial robots are in China. This creates a huge problem: the labor cost cannot compete with the cost of robots, and for the same product, robots in China can produce it at least three times cheaper. How can we compete? Just calculate how many links a product goes through from parts to the final customer; if each link is three times cheaper, you can see how ridiculous it is. We all know this; how could Trump’s team not know? So why continue down this path? Because they have no choice.

First and foremost: After Trump took office, he hurriedly initiated the Stargate project. If this succeeds, the U.S. may not fully revive, but at least it could continue to survive, because although it is just a city of future high-tech, the butterfly effect of funding could amount to trillions of dollars. Just think about how enormous a demand for tens of trillions of dollars is; it could even drive product prices higher, creating an industry worth several tens of trillions of dollars. However, ideals are abundant, while reality is stark. The fervent AI plan unexpectedly ran into Deep Seek, which directly bankrupted the Stargate project. Let's not discuss whether it is ahead or not; as long as the free level is similar, the U.S. calculations can't hold anymore. It was originally estimated to attract around $800 billion in global capital, while also welding the car door shut to eat alone, allowing the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates without worrying about currency flooding. Meanwhile, it would lock the industrial culture of various countries in the U.S. war machine. And this is just the first step. The real importance lies in getting global investors and governments to quickly return their dollars to the stock market, rather than running to the bond market. Why?

Because if the dollars don’t return, and the Federal Reserve doesn’t pump money, $6 trillion in U.S. debt is due in June, followed by two more $3 trillion debts. They won’t even be able to pay the interest. Once debt defaults, the credibility of the dollar will collapse, which is the foundation of American hegemony. However, this round of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet reduction journey is different from the past; after so many years of playing tricks, everyone understands it now. Funds are not going to U.S. stocks to let you harvest the leeks. They are either hiding in gold or the bond market. This is why gold prices are soaring while the dollar index is weak. Buying gold and U.S. bonds wouldn't be a problem normally, but the issue lies in the current circumstances. The amount of dollar funds is now so enormous that it is daunting; small amounts of water cannot extinguish large fires; only large amounts can suffice. However, the premise of releasing large amounts of water is to reduce inflation and unemployment. Otherwise, once the printing press starts, it will be the first to die from inflation. The problem is that inflation cannot be lowered, and the unemployment rate is also a mystery. Just don’t believe their claims about a booming employment situation; it’s all nonsense and fluff in their PPT. At this point, a deadlock forms, and the longer this deadlock lasts, the worse it gets because interest rates are tightening step by step.

Returning to the China-U.S. tariff war, when it comes to this matter, I must say that American politicians are really something else. The reason they created this bizarre operation that harms people around the world is to artificially create funding demand, completely disregarding the lives of ordinary people worldwide. They initially calculated it well, forcibly raising the prices of products around the world; this tactic works for all countries except China. But China is a major manufacturing country, which means it controls product supply and whether to supply. It was supposed to work if China backed down or tacitly agreed to continue supplying while imposing tariffs, but they didn't expect China to retaliate so quickly. Now it’s no longer a question of whether the U.S. will decouple; rather, it's about China saying, 'We're not playing with you anymore,' and directly threatening not to sell. This is a big mess. They wanted to raise prices to create demand, but they fantasized about extorting China to share costs. Once China chooses to share costs, the U.S. continues to enjoy cheap goods while China faces disaster. Why? Because the consumption level difference between the two countries is so great that wealthy Americans can withstand a 100% tariff, but what about the poor? Are they even considered human? In the face of dollar hegemony, they are worse than dogs. But what China cannot accept is that if we tacitly agree to such cost-sharing behavior, it means that all Chinese people are working for free for the U.S. Because with such a tax rate, even if the costs are shared, they would exceed profits. Is this something people can accept? Therefore, there’s no discussion now; either you lower the tariffs, or you pay the tariffs, or you directly don’t sell. In any case, there’s no way to freeload or share tariffs.

If this policy does not change, the American middle class and those below will be impoverished. And the impoverished people mean war because there are no choices; either go to the battlefield or starve to death. This is a twofold poison plan from the U.S. Manufacturing war is a common trick for the U.S., but I guarantee that this time, as long as they dare to initiate any large-scale war, they will undoubtedly perish. Times have changed; the world is no longer the same. China is no longer hiding its strengths and biding its time. The main point is that there is no longer any interest or feelings with the U.S. In the past, we turned a blind eye; now, whoever you mess with, I will support. Although they may not necessarily win, as long as they can consume your strength, the final fruits will not be yours.

As for the probability of it daring to directly engage in war with China, it is still very low. Because they are well aware of the strength of the Chinese military, especially with the support of manufacturing. They know very well how they came to sit on the throne of hegemony back in the day. The cost of daring to fire a single shell at China is a fight to the death, as neither side can afford to lose; there are no options.

June might see a big explosion; it is estimated that while attacking Iran, they will also turn on the money printing machine, or else there’s no way to repay debts. Once the money printing machine starts, the financial market will turn red, and the cryptocurrency industry will also welcome good news. For now, it still looks like a bullish market.$BTC