#特朗普施压鲍威尔 1. Challenges to Federal Reserve Independence: The independence of the Federal Reserve is seen as central to modern economic governance; political interference may weaken its authority and trigger a crisis of trust.

2. Market Stability and Volatility Risks: Investors are concerned that this move will lead to turmoil in the financial markets. Reports indicate that the term premium in the U.S. bond market has suddenly increased, signaling heightened investor uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policies.

After Powell's comments about not providing a "Federal Reserve backstop," the S&P 500 index fell by 2.8%, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds became more volatile, and the dollar weakened.

3. Impact on Bonds and Exchange Rates: With rising expectations of political interference, bond market investors may demand a higher risk premium to compensate for the uncertainty, putting pressure on the dollar index in the short term and affecting global capital flow patterns.

4. Impact on Cryptocurrencies:

① Increased Short-term Volatility: The Bitcoin market is extremely sensitive to political risks. Data from CoinDesk shows that after Trump's post on April 19, Bitcoin's price dropped by 2% to about $68,300.

Crypto analyst Anthony Pompliano warned that if the president can arbitrarily dismiss the Federal Reserve chairman, it would set a "very bad precedent" for the market, potentially triggering severe fluctuations in Bitcoin and other digital assets.

② Long-term Safe Haven and Alternative Asset Role: The Chief Strategy Officer of Bitwise pointed out that although the short-term market may experience panic selling, Bitcoin's role as a safe-haven asset as "digital gold" remains attractive in the medium to long term and may gain support during periods of Federal Reserve uncertainty.

Some predictive market data suggests that changes in the Federal Reserve chair may encourage more investors to shift capital toward crypto assets to hedge against dollar risks; the Crypto Rover prediction platform currently indicates a 21% probability of Powell being dismissed, and such political uncertainty may further drive safe-haven funds into the crypto market.

If Trump does indeed dismiss Powell, it will create significant waves in the financial markets, challenging the Federal Reserve's independence and likely exacerbating volatility in the stock, bond, and cryptocurrency markets in the short term; in the long run, cryptocurrencies may gain new safe-haven properties due to their decentralized nature.