The market has almost completely priced in a rate cut to 6.19 with 76,259,428,245. There are still two full months left, so how will the market move? Typically, hot money starts to position itself a month before a rate cut, leading to a fluctuating upward market.
Currently, the market is overly focused on Powell's speech to understand how many rate cuts there will be in 2025. If there are only 2 cuts, then after the cut in June, it is estimated that it would take another three to four months before the next cut, meaning that after the June cut, we might have to escape the peak.
If there are more than 3 rate cuts, it likely means that the risk of economic recession has surpassed the importance of controlling inflation; at this point, the US stock market might fall into the awkward situation of a rate-cut bear market, which would also drag down Bitcoin. Therefore, the market movement resulting from the June rate cut is basically just a slightly larger rebound from a bear market decline; if the momentum is strong, it could reach 92k-96k, but if the momentum is weak, it would probably just hover around 90k.
Selling at 90K-100k has been ongoing for three months, and there are simply too many trapped positions, creating too much pressure. The largest player (not MicroStrategy) has already sold off their holdings in this range, so shorting in this range has a very high cost-performance ratio.
Looking down, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holding cost is 67k, which will definitely serve as an important support level and can be used as a basis for right-side bottom fishing.
In the current environment, gold is truly a win-win; I am still very optimistic about gold. Economic recession, inflation, rate cuts, trade wars for safe havens, US debt being sold off, and dollar depreciation are all bullish arguments for gold. Only when investors take profits can a pullback occur; otherwise, it’s a no-brainer to buy the dip in gold.
In summary, my operational advice is to accumulate enough BTC and SOL below 80k in the next month, and remember to buy the dip. Numerous practices have proven that buying during a crash won't leave you trapped for more than 24 hours. Only by bottom fishing and shorting at highs can one encounter significant market movements. In the end, those who hold on will generally win, while those who chase shorts and long positions usually lose money.
A short-term trend change is imminent, and I am optimistic about a downward move. The three shorting points are 86100, 87200, and 88000, and a strong liquidation to 200k is not a problem.
