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Federal Reserve Governor Waller on Trump's Tariff Policy: Huge Impact on Inflation and the Economy
Just now, Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed his views on Trump's tariff policy, which has attracted much attention, as he is relatively more dovish compared to other Federal Reserve officials.
Waller pointed out that if U.S. tariffs remain at an average level of 25% for a long time, the situation will be grim. Core PCE could rise to 4% - 5% (currently at 2.8%). Whether companies can pass on costs to consumers will be a key factor in determining the extent of inflation increase. Although the short-term impact on overall inflation can be overlooked by the Federal Reserve, the subsequent economic shock could be extremely significant, and it is highly likely to greatly push the economy downward. Once a recession occurs, Waller stated that he would support earlier and larger rate cuts because, in his view, when the economy slows rapidly, even if inflation is far above 2%, the risk of economic recession will outweigh the risk of inflation rising.
If U.S. tariffs are lower, the situation would be much better. The impact on inflation would be greatly reduced, and the expected peak could fall to 3%, which significantly alleviates inflationary pressure and reduces the risk of recession. In this case, if the Federal Reserve still believes that inflation can return to 2%, Waller supports the idea of rate cuts in the second half of the year. Waller's views undoubtedly provide the market with a new perspective to observe the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy, and raise further concerns about the subsequent effects of tariff policies during the Trump era.
#BTC☀ $BNB
Just now, Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed his views on Trump's tariff policy, which has attracted much attention, as he is relatively more dovish compared to other Federal Reserve officials.
Waller pointed out that if U.S. tariffs remain at an average level of 25% for a long time, the situation will be grim. Core PCE could rise to 4% - 5% (currently at 2.8%). Whether companies can pass on costs to consumers will be a key factor in determining the extent of inflation increase. Although the short-term impact on overall inflation can be overlooked by the Federal Reserve, the subsequent economic shock could be extremely significant, and it is highly likely to greatly push the economy downward. Once a recession occurs, Waller stated that he would support earlier and larger rate cuts because, in his view, when the economy slows rapidly, even if inflation is far above 2%, the risk of economic recession will outweigh the risk of inflation rising.
If U.S. tariffs are lower, the situation would be much better. The impact on inflation would be greatly reduced, and the expected peak could fall to 3%, which significantly alleviates inflationary pressure and reduces the risk of recession. In this case, if the Federal Reserve still believes that inflation can return to 2%, Waller supports the idea of rate cuts in the second half of the year. Waller's views undoubtedly provide the market with a new perspective to observe the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy, and raise further concerns about the subsequent effects of tariff policies during the Trump era.
#BTC☀ $BNB
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