Some say that the United States has the conditions for interest rate cuts. Is this really the case?

1. Inflation is still above target: New York Fed President Williams predicts that the PCE inflation rate will exceed 3.5%-4% in 2025, significantly higher than the Fed's 2% target. Although both core and overall CPI inflation fell in March, consumer expectations for inflation in the next year are as high as 6.7%, the highest level since 1981, posing a risk of a 'wage-price' spiral.

2. High economic uncertainty: The Fed meeting minutes show that policymakers unanimously believe that tariffs and other policies from the Trump administration have led to high economic uncertainty. This uncertainty is reflected in various aspects such as inflation, employment, corporate investment, and consumer confidence, making it difficult for the Fed to make decisions on monetary policy.

3. The job market is currently stable: The current unemployment rate is 4.2%. Although Williams warned that with waves of layoffs and hiring freezes, the unemployment rate could jump to 5% within a year, the job market has not yet shown significant deterioration and has not reached a level that would prompt the Fed to cut interest rates.

Overall, it is unlikely that there will be interest rate cuts at least in the short term.