Trump claims that U.S. tariff revenue has reached a 'record' level, and that prices for almost all products are falling. This statement has thrown a stone into the economic field, creating ripples in the cryptocurrency market and prompting reflection on the subsequent trends in the cryptocurrency market.
Reasons for optimism about the future development of the cryptocurrency market
Capital overflow effects under expectations of economic stability: If the tariff policy truly brings about positive effects, as Trump claims, leading to a stable U.S. economy and increased market confidence. In a stable traditional financial market, some capital may overflow into the cryptocurrency market in search of higher returns. After all, the potential and returns demonstrated by the cryptocurrency market in recent years have attracted the attention of more and more investors. For example, when the stock market is in a stable development period, some investors will allocate part of their funds into the cryptocurrency market, driving up cryptocurrency prices.
Inverse push from changes in the attractiveness of dollar assets: Increased tariff revenue may affect the supply and demand relationship and attractiveness of dollar assets. If the attractiveness of dollar assets declines, investors will look for other assets to allocate, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, due to their decentralized and global nature, may become a new direction for capital. Just like during past periods of dollar fluctuations, Bitcoin is often seen as a safe-haven asset, attracting capital inflow and thereby driving up prices.
Reasons for pessimism about the future development of the cryptocurrency market
Shifts in risk aversion due to policy uncertainty: Trump's tariff policy has always been fraught with controversy and uncertainty. This instability in policy may trigger market risk aversion, but if investors believe that the risks in the cryptocurrency market are greater than those in traditional financial markets, risk-averse funds may flow into more stable assets, such as gold and government bonds, rather than into the cryptocurrency market, leading to capital outflow and price pressure.
Potential risks from tightening regulation: Adjustments in tariff policy are often accompanied by a government reassessment of regulatory measures across various economic sectors. In the cryptocurrency market, changes in regulatory policies have a significant impact on its development. If the economic stability brought about by tariff policies prompts the government to strengthen regulation of the cryptocurrency market, such as restricting trading and enhancing compliance checks, it may suppress the development of the cryptocurrency market, leading to a price decline.
Trump's statements on tariffs have a complex impact on the trend of the cryptocurrency market. From the perspective of economic stability and asset allocation, there are opportunities for upward development in the cryptocurrency market; however, considering policy uncertainty and regulatory risks, there are also downward pressures. Investors need to closely monitor policy dynamics, market sentiment, and the flow of funds, among other factors.
