1. Technical Analysis BTC/USDT (1 Month Timeframe)

Current price: $84,260

Monthly decline: -14.93% (last 90 days)

Moving Averages:

MA(7): $82,604 (still below the current price – short rebound signal)

MA(25): $91,379 (still strong resistance)

MA(99): $59,364 (long-term support)

Trend:

BTC is still in a correction phase from the monthly high of $109,588.

The price has managed to stay above the important support of $82,000, but is still held back by MA25 as resistance.

The March-April candle forms a “Lower High – Lower Low” pattern = potential continuation of correction if it fails to breakout $91,000.

Volume & Market Sentiment:

Volume is relatively stable, but has not yet shown strong buying pressure.

68% of orders are on the buy side, meaning the retail market is starting to gain confidence in a rebound – but it is not strong enough without institutional support.

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2. Fundamental Analysis BTC

a. Positive Catalysts

Institutional Adoption: Pension funds and hedge funds are beginning to buy BTC as a hedge against inflation and portfolio diversification. This increases long-term investor confidence.

Upcoming Halving (2026): Historically, BTC prices tend to rise in the 12–18 months leading up to the halving, so many investors are starting to “quietly accumulate.”

BTC Spot ETF: Several BTC spot ETFs have been approved in the US, paving the way for inflows from retail and institutional investors.

b. Risks & Negative Sentiment

Tapering & Interest Rate Hikes: If the Fed becomes hawkish again, risky assets like crypto could be pressured.

Strict Regulations: Some countries (such as India and parts of the European Union) are starting to impose taxes and restrictions on crypto trading.

Global Volatility: Geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainty may cause investors to avoid volatile assets like BTC.