Analysis: If Trump successfully overturns the 'Humphrey's Executor case', his ability to fire the Federal Reserve Chair will increase

Recently, Trump urgently petitioned the U.S. Supreme Court, hoping the justices would grant him unrestricted firing authority. Standing in his way is a precedent from Franklin D. Roosevelt's administration—the 'Humphrey's Executor v. United States' case.

In 1933, Roosevelt attempted to fire one of the five commissioners of the Federal Trade Commission, William Humphrey, due to disagreements over trade policy and opposition to the 'New Deal' plan. Humphrey sued Roosevelt, and although he passed away the following year, in 1935, the Supreme Court ruled in his favor. For decades, the 'Humphrey's Executor case' established a principle: the president does not have unlimited firing authority.

In the spirit of the 'Humphrey's Executor case', the district court ruled that Trump did not have the authority to fire two officials appointed by Biden in 2021 and 2022: Cathy Harris (a member of the Merit Systems Protection Board, MSPB) and Gwynne Wilcox (a member of the National Labor Relations Board, NLRB). Since Trump did not provide any reasons for firing them, simply believing they would not support his policies, the court deemed his actions invalid.

Sai Prakash, a law professor at the University of Virginia, believes that the 'Trump v. Wilcox case' may completely end the legal status of the 'Humphrey's Executor case'. Will Baude from the University of Chicago Law School also stated that the justices 'will almost certainly' end the 'Humphrey's Executor case'.

The Federal Reserve and its chair have never been completely free from political influence; for instance, Nixon requested Chair Burns to lower interest rates before the 1972 election. Trump also expressed regret over nominating Powell as Federal Reserve Chair during his term. Recently, Trump stated that he would not replace Powell before his term ends in May 2026 (his term on the board ends in 2028). However, if Trump becomes dissatisfied with Powell again and the 'Humphrey's Executor case' is overturned, he will have greater leeway to fire the Federal Reserve Chair.