Twenty days ago, Portal Labs wrote an article (CZ: 'It's easy to surpass 99% of players in Web3, but hard to beat the last 1%!'), at that time, CZ's HODLism was still highly praised.
However, in just a few days, Trump's tariff stick seems to have easily shattered everyone's faith in HODLism.
In April 2025, U.S. President Trump once again announced tariff policies aimed at the global market, reshaping the trade landscape with the U.S.
Why say 'again'?
As early as during his first term from 2017-2020, the Trump administration implemented a series of tariff policies based on the 'America First' trade protectionism approach. At that time, the Dow immediately fell by 500.
Fast forward to 2025, during Trump’s second term, he once again extended and upgraded his tariff policies, with a wider scope and greater intensity, significantly impacting the global financial market — all three major U.S. indices dropped sharply, with the Nasdaq index falling over 2,300 points from April 2 to 8, the Dow dropping nearly 4,600 points, and the S&P 500 index falling below 5,000.
In the crypto market, cryptocurrency assets represented by $BTC also fell in response, with BTC dropping to a low of 74,500 USDT on the evening of June 7. According to SoSoValue data, within 24 hours of the tariff policy taking effect, the entire crypto market turned green, with mainstream crypto assets generally down by 3%-10%, and the total market capitalization evaporating by about $300 billion. Although there has been some improvement, it is still significantly damaged.
However, on April 10, with Trump's announcement of a '90-day suspension of tariffs for 75 countries in communication', both traditional financial markets and crypto markets began to recover, with BTC price returning to the 80,000 USDT level. According to Bitget Wallet trends, 80.41% of tokens in the entire crypto market are in an upward phase.
However, according to data from CoinMarketCap, recent market sentiment has been in extreme fear. In particular, Trump's statements on his social media platform have led some analysts to suspect that his actions may involve insider trading. Additionally, some in the market are concerned about the potential 'death spiral' if MicroStrategy is forced to sell BTC under extreme circumstances.
Previously, BTC had been dubbed digital gold, one of the important reasons being that it could serve as a safe haven in emergencies like gold. However, whether during this tariff event or in the past six months, it is evident that BTC has not perfectly assumed that role.
The above is the price trend chart of BTC and gold spot in TradingView, with the former showing the trend since April. Although influenced by the overall environment, BTC and gold have shown similar fluctuations during the same period, BTC has exhibited greater volatility compared to gold; the latter shows a continuous upward trend over the past six months, while the price of BTC has moved in the opposite direction.
In fact, if we overlay the price movements of BTC with the three major U.S. indices, we find that the correlation between the four is significantly increasing.
In addition, according to CoinDesk, due to the impact of geopolitical and tariff uncertainties, tokenized gold assets have recently performed strongly, with a market capitalization nearing $2 billion, becoming a hotspot for safe-haven assets in the crypto market. A report from CEX.IO shows that since January 20, when Trump took office, the trading volume of Paxos Gold (PAXG) and Tether Gold (XAUT) increased by 900% and 300%, respectively.
So, what exactly are we investing in?
As a safe-haven asset, BTC should ideally rise against the trend like gold (although gold has certain volatility, its overall trend is steadily upward). However, the reality shows that in the face of macro risks, it has not demonstrated the independence of a 'safe-haven asset', but rather aligned more closely with the movements of high-risk assets.
On April 8, at the Hong Kong Crypto Finance Forum, Professor Lin Chen from the University of Hong Kong stated that since the launch of the BTC spot ETF, with the allocation of traditional financial institutions, BTC is increasingly resembling a 'high beta asset incorporated into the global capital allocation system', with its price fluctuations increasingly influenced by U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar index, and macro policy expectations.
This means that for institutional investors, BTC has not fully assumed the role of a 'safe-haven tool', but is instead viewed as an exposure to macroeconomic risks — in an environment of high interest rates, a strong dollar, and financial system turmoil, BTC does not inherently possess 'counter-cyclical' advantages; it is more of a highly elastic speculative target.
If BTC cannot serve as a safe-haven asset at critical moments, and even reacts to systemic risks just as sensitively as tech stocks — then is it really digital gold, or just another high-volatility asset labeled with faith? This is not a denial of BTC, but a rethinking of the 'pricing logic' of the entire crypto asset.
However, the good news is that 'fluctuations have cycles, and the market continues to move forward'.
Similar tariff dramas have played out more than once in U.S. history, and their ultimate outcome often tends to push the global trading system towards greater maturity and rationality.
For example, the most notorious incident in U.S. history was in 1930, when President Hoover signed the (Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act), raising tariffs on thousands of goods to historic highs in an attempt to save the domestic economy through protectionism, but instead leading to further deterioration of the U.S. economy, skyrocketing unemployment, and a nearly two-thirds decline in global trade volume. Three years later, the Roosevelt administration had to correct this with the (Reciprocal Tariff Act), initiating a long-term free trade strategy for the United States.
Returning to this incident, the Trump administration's proposed round of super strong tariff policies, although more aggressive and broader in coverage, quickly 'hit the brakes' after an extreme market reaction. This itself sends a signal: it feels more like a bargaining chip rather than a substantive conflict.
In fact, Trump is very skilled at navigating between 'creating risk' and 'controlling risk'. At the same time, he does not shy away from using financial markets as political tools.
Another point of concern is that according to data from the U.S. Treasury and CBO, the scale of U.S. debt maturing in 2025 exceeds $9 trillion, and the issue of fiscal deficits is imminent, with the Federal Reserve's window for maintaining high interest rates running short.
The current tariff actions may be more likely a means to bring about a 'new round of capital repatriation' for the United States: on one hand, increasing the demand for the dollar under the guise of taxation, and on the other hand, lowering asset prices and increasing the appeal of safe-haven assets while creating uncertainty in the manufacturing market, thus opening up funding channels for the U.S. Treasury market.
So, can crypto players still adhere to long-termism?
Whether from a policy or market perspective, it is clear that long-termism is no longer simply about BTC HODL. Trump's frequent shifts in tariff policy have greatly heightened market risk aversion. Until the trade and tariff wars are over, market uncertainty will persist, and volatility will continue.
It is worth noting that during the BNB Chain community event on April 7, when asked whether to continue adhering to 'HODL', CZ pointed out that some assets indeed have fundamentals and practical applications, and you can hold onto them long-term. At the same time, he believes that BTC is now a reserve asset, and holding it long-term will appreciate, but beyond that, some fundamentally strong assets can outperform BTC over time. Understanding and discovering these requires a higher level of awareness.
Looking back, what has really stood the test of time in the crypto market has never been short-term price advantages, but those structural assets and on-chain application networks that still exist and are still being used after each narrative collapse. Whether it's public chains, DePIN, AI-type infrastructure, or decentralized applications like wallets and cross-chain bridges, they are the underlying soil supporting the continued advancement of this industry.
When the 'Beta attribute' obscures the original intent of Bitcoin itself, what we need is not a new emotional placebo, but a renewed judgment of the real value on the blockchain.
Long-termism has never been an obsession with price; it is about understanding and participating in structural evolution. Just like our country has consistently maintained, being open to the application of crypto technology while being conservative about the financial attributes of tokens. What is truly worth our investment has never been a single candlestick on a price chart, but those Web3 projects that build a new order with code and mechanisms.
Therefore, rather than being anxious about the market, it is better to understand those projects that are still iterating protocols, promoting implementation, and genuinely trying to solve real-world problems with blockchain.
