Polymarket Pegs U.S. Recession Odds at 60% for 2025 as Economic Fears Mount

The probability of the United States entering a recession in 2025 has surged to 60%, according to decentralized prediction market Polymarket, reflecting mounting investor concerns amid heightened macroeconomic uncertainty.

Prediction Market Sees Sharp Climb in Recession Bets

Data from Polymarket shows that the odds of a 2025 U.S. recession have tripled since early March, rising from just 20% to the current 60% level. The market’s total trading volume has reached $2.48 million, with contracts set to expire on February 28, 2026.

The prediction will resolve as "Yes" if either of the following criteria is met:

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declares a recession for 2025.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth within that year.