小币长虹
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American soybeans are first sold to Brazil. Then, they are shipped from Brazil to China. China's electrical appliances are first sold to the European Union, and then shipped from the European Union to the United States. Even if direct trade between the US and China is zero, transshipment trade will still develop rapidly. Unless the US closes its doors. The American people will not work for pennies! A trade war is just a passing breeze. After the wind blows, everything will return to calm.
If we talk about the US-China trade war, in the end, it is the US that suffers.
Take American soybeans as an example; in 2024, China bought 52% of its soybeans from the US, but when Trump suddenly raised tariffs, American farmers were frantic. But guess what?
American soybeans turned around and were sold to Brazil, which then shipped them to China at an even cheaper price than before! It's like going to a supermarket to buy apples: originally sourced directly from Shandong, but the boss insists on routing through Henan, and in the end, still sells to you at a lower price.
Chinese electrical appliances are the same. The US has imposed an 80% tariff on Chinese home appliances; what are companies like Haier and Hisense supposed to do? They directly build factories in Mexico, using the zero-tariff policy of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement to ship air conditioners and refrigerators to the US, with almost zero tariff costs.
Even more impressively, some small appliance companies first export their products to Vietnam, and then re-export them to the US. Although they have to pay a 46% tariff, it still saves half the money compared to direct exports. It's like going to a vegetable market: the vendor says, "Original price is 10 yuan, routed price is 5 yuan, which one do you choose?"
Boston Consulting Group has calculated that transshipment trade has caused American consumers to spend 18% more, but the protective effect of tariffs has been completely offset. The US wants to bring manufacturing back through the trade war, but the reality is harsh.
McKinsey's report clearly states that the share of manufacturing jobs in the US is only 9%, and it is concentrated in high-end industries. Ordinary Americans would rather deliver food or drive for ride-sharing services than work in factories. Even if the government subsidizes factory construction, companies prefer to place production lines in Mexico—where labor costs are only one-third of those in the US, and they can enjoy zero tariffs.
So, how long can this self-harming and non-beneficial trade for the US last?
If we talk about the US-China trade war, in the end, it is the US that suffers.
Take American soybeans as an example; in 2024, China bought 52% of its soybeans from the US, but when Trump suddenly raised tariffs, American farmers were frantic. But guess what?
American soybeans turned around and were sold to Brazil, which then shipped them to China at an even cheaper price than before! It's like going to a supermarket to buy apples: originally sourced directly from Shandong, but the boss insists on routing through Henan, and in the end, still sells to you at a lower price.
Chinese electrical appliances are the same. The US has imposed an 80% tariff on Chinese home appliances; what are companies like Haier and Hisense supposed to do? They directly build factories in Mexico, using the zero-tariff policy of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement to ship air conditioners and refrigerators to the US, with almost zero tariff costs.
Even more impressively, some small appliance companies first export their products to Vietnam, and then re-export them to the US. Although they have to pay a 46% tariff, it still saves half the money compared to direct exports. It's like going to a vegetable market: the vendor says, "Original price is 10 yuan, routed price is 5 yuan, which one do you choose?"
Boston Consulting Group has calculated that transshipment trade has caused American consumers to spend 18% more, but the protective effect of tariffs has been completely offset. The US wants to bring manufacturing back through the trade war, but the reality is harsh.
McKinsey's report clearly states that the share of manufacturing jobs in the US is only 9%, and it is concentrated in high-end industries. Ordinary Americans would rather deliver food or drive for ride-sharing services than work in factories. Even if the government subsidizes factory construction, companies prefer to place production lines in Mexico—where labor costs are only one-third of those in the US, and they can enjoy zero tariffs.
So, how long can this self-harming and non-beneficial trade for the US last?
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