#TariffsPause Rapid Reversal of Goldman Sachs' Recession Forecast Amid Tariff Turbulence

On April 9, 2025, Goldman Sachs quickly revised its U.S. recession forecast in just 73 minutes, reflecting the volatile nature of current economic policies. Initially, the bank increased the probability of recession in 12 months from 45% to 65% in response to President Donald Trump's announcement of new strict tariffs. However, shortly thereafter, Trump introduced a 90-day pause on most of these tariffs, leading Goldman Sachs to revert to its original 45% recession probability.