#TariffsPause That's a big move—both in policy and markets. Let’s break it down a bit:

1. The Tariff Pause (Except China):

A 90-day pause on most tariffs signals a more dovish, market-friendly stance—probably aimed at cooling inflation or giving businesses some breathing room. Exempting China while hiking their rates to 125% is aggressive and will likely inflame U.S.-China tensions, but it might play well politically and domestically.

2. Market Reaction – Relief or Real Recovery?

A $5.5 trillion boost to the market and Bitcoin over $83K is massive, likely reflecting a combination of:

Short covering + momentum trades after months of uncertainty.

Speculative optimism that this could mark a shift in Trump’s economic strategy or a signal of broader stimulus.

AI-driven trading and retail sentiment, both of which move fast and can push prices sharply in the short term.

Outlook – Relief Rally or Sustained Recovery?

At this stage, it smells like a relief rally with a few caveats:

If inflation doesn’t spike from the China tariffs and macro indicators remain stable, it could build into a more sustained bull run.

However, China retaliation, supply chain disruptions, or Fed tightening in response to renewed inflation could pull markets back fast.

Bitcoin at $83K also suggests growing demand for non-sovereign stores of value—either as a hedge or speculation.

Short-Term: Markets may remain volatile but buoyant.

Medium-Term: Watch inflation data, China’s response, and Fed signals.

Long-Term: If Trump is signaling a broader economic pivot (e.g., tax cuts, deregulation, infrastructure), this could turn into a real recovery.