Prominent Community - [Analysis by Dr. Louis]
Real Market Analysis - Brief Version
#Macroeconomic
Economic Data: New Non-Farm (22.8) greatly exceeded expectations, unemployment rate (4.2%) rounded off is basically in line with expectations, indicating that the economy has resilience. Therefore, the market experienced a short-term rebound after the data was released.
Subsequently, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech was hawkish: the Federal Reserve is committed to maximizing employment and a 2% inflation target, the economic situation is good but faces uncertainty risks such as tariffs, and policy will remain patient, waiting for clearer data before adjusting interest rates. (The Federal Reserve seems unwilling to fully yield to Trump)
Other countries still have time to compromise with the U.S. before April 9, so there is still some room for maneuver regarding tariffs. However, the U.S. tax season starting on April 15 may trigger an increase in TGA, leading to tightening dollar liquidity, as well as market expectations of a recession in the U.S. economy due to GDP data, which still needs to be monitored.
#Technical Analysis
In the short term, today's closing price stabilized above the EA arbitrage model's corrected lowest price of 82716.49, indicating that the technical aspect of Bitcoin has not significantly weakened. It may still test the corrected closing price of 84708.58 (which is also near the downward trend line), but will likely encounter resistance and pull back afterwards. Because according to the rise and fall trend model, after the downward trend was established on February 25, it still requires a longer time and more space for adjustment.
#Two Possible Reasons for Bitcoin's Limited Decline in the Short Term:
1. The safe-haven attribute of Bitcoin as digital gold is gradually emerging, and the systemic risk brought by the stock market to BTC is weakening, which may be more attractive to investors seeking diversification. (β-BTC/β-NASDAQ = 0.68). In addition, on-chain data shows that the cost of the longest-term holders closest to the current price is around 81000 (with a scale of over 300,000 coins), which also provides some support for the price.
2. BTC ETF had a net inflow of 218 million on April 2, which was greater than the net outflow in the following two days (and the net outflow is shrinking), supporting the coin price as hedge funds reduce their net short positions. The negative premium of BTC spot gradually decreases, indicating the possibility of price rebound support. (Refer to the trend after the divergence between the spot price and premium on March 31).