Analysis of the impact of Trump's tariff policy on the cryptocurrency market
Trump is expected to announce tariff policies on April 2.
In the short term (1-2 months), tariff policies may bring bearish pressure, as the market is more likely to focus on trade war risks and expectations of economic slowdown, triggering downward volatility for BTC, ETH, and ADA. In the medium to long term (2-6 months), if Trump can effectively combine tariffs with his pro-crypto policies and alleviate market panic, it may turn bullish, especially for BTC and ETH, due to their more stable market positions. As a smaller altcoin, ADA is more volatile and may face more pronounced pressure in the short term.
Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) trend and 2-6 month forecast
Current trend
Assuming the current price based on recent data, BTC may fluctuate between $80,000 and $90,000. At the beginning of March, after Trump announced crypto reserves, BTC briefly broke through $94,000, but then fell back to around $80,000 due to tariff threats and market disappointment, forming a 'bear flag' pattern, indicating short-term downward pressure.
• Technical indicators:
◦ RSI (Relative Strength Index): about 43-45, in a neutral to weak position, not oversold, indicating insufficient buying momentum.
◦ Support level: $80,000 (key psychological level), if it breaks, it may drop to $72,000.
◦ Resistance level: $90,000, if it breaks, it looks up to the historical high of $100,000.
Macro environment and cryptocurrency cycle
• Macroeconomic environment: The Federal Reserve's recent stance is relatively dovish (Powell hinted at possible easing), but inflation pressure from tariffs may force it to maintain high interest rates, which is unfavorable for risk assets.
• Cryptocurrency cycle: 2025 is one year after the Bitcoin halving (April 2024 halving), historically, this phase (2017, 2021) has been a bull market uptrend. However, the current market sentiment is affected by tariff uncertainty, and the fear and greed index shows 'fear' dominating.
2-6 month forecast
• Short term (2-3 months): BTC may drop to the range of $72,000 - $75,000 due to market panic and selling pressure triggered by tariffs. If it breaks below $70,000, it may further test $60,000.
• Medium to long term (4-6 months): If Trump's policies become clearer (such as easing regulations or initiating BTC reserve purchases), BTC is expected to rebound to $90,000 - $100,000, and even challenge the historical high of $110,000. Forecast range: $70,000 - $100,000, leaning towards upward fluctuation.
Conclusion
• Impact of tariff policy: short-term bearish (market panic), medium to long-term potential bullish (hedging demand + policy support).
• BTC forecast: expected to fluctuate upward within 2-6 months, in the range of $70,000 - $100,000.
It is recommended to closely monitor the details of Trump's policy on April 2 (whether it eases the tariff stance) and the Federal Reserve's subsequent statements, as these will be key catalysts affecting market direction.