Do you rationally understand the importance of 'the market determines you, you must follow the market', but subconsciously still believe you can beat the market, even often fantasizing about getting rich quickly with little investment???
I. Why the subconscious resists 'the market determines you'?
1. Overconfidence Bias
Performance: Overestimating one's analytical ability, believing one can predict market fluctuations or discover 'unique opportunities'.
Root cause:
Accidental successes are attributed to ability (e.g., profit from a specific trade), while failures are blamed on luck or external factors;
Selective memory reinforces the belief 'I can win'.
2. Illusion of Control
Performance: Attempting to control the uncontrollable market through frequent trading, technical analysis, or 'insider information'.
Root cause:
Humans naturally hate uncertainty and alleviate anxiety through 'action';
Simplifying complex markets into understandable patterns (e.g., candlestick patterns), mistakenly believing to have found the rules.
3. Survivorship Bias
Performance: The media sensationalizes a few cases of getting rich, ignoring the silent majority of losers.
Root cause:
Success stories are easier to spread, while failures are reluctant to speak up;
Long-term accumulated wealth (e.g., 10% annualized) lacks explosive dissemination, far less attractive than 'doubling overnight'.
4. Instant Gratification Preference
Performance: Pursuing short-term explosive profits, underestimating the value of long-term compounding.
Root cause:
The brain's dopamine system is addicted to quick feedback (such as daily profits);
Compounding requires time to settle, making it difficult to provide instant excitement.
5. Social cultural pressure
Performance: Narratives like 'financial freedom' and 'financial independence' create anxiety about getting rich, making people eager to prove themselves.
Root cause:
Social media amplifies the psychology of comparison, creating the illusion that 'everyone else has succeeded, only I am falling behind';
Traditional success studies promote 'beating the market = individual ability', ignoring luck and systemic risks.
II. How to tame the subconscious of 'beating the market'?
1. Reshape cognition: Accept the unpredictability of the market
Action:
Learn chaos theory and the random walk hypothesis to understand that the essence of the market is a probability game;
Use historical data to validate strategies, clarifying that 'long-term profits ≠ being right every time', for example:
Assuming a strategy has a 40% win rate and a win-loss ratio of 3:1, the long-term expected value is positive but must endure periods of consecutive losses.
Psychological suggestion:
View the market as an ocean, and yourself as a surfer—riding the waves, not battling the storm.
2. Quantify risk: Use rules to constrain impulses
Action:
Set single trade risk (e.g., ≤2% of capital) and enforce diversification;
Use stop-loss and take-profit orders to avoid emotional trading.
Example:
If the capital is $100,000, the maximum single loss is $2,000. Even after 10 consecutive losses, 80% of the capital is still preserved.
3. Shift focus: from 'profit' to 'process'
Action:
Establish a trading journal to record the logic of each trade (e.g., 'enter based on breaking the 20-day moving average'), rather than the result;
Regularly review to assess whether the plan was followed, rather than focusing on the amount of profit and loss.
Golden words:
"Profit is a byproduct of correct behavior, not a direct goal."
4. Simulating the long-term consequences of 'getting rich quickly'
Action:
Calculate the probability of 'getting rich overnight': Suppose a strategy has a 1% chance of achieving an annualized 1000% return, but a 99% chance of losing 50%, the long-term expected value is:
(0.01×1000%)+(0.99×−50%)=−39.5%
Comparing the compounding effect: A strategy with a 15% annualized return quadruples in 10 years and increases 66 times in 30 years.
5. Environmental isolation: reduce noise interference
Action:
Block stock recommendation groups and short-term trading channels to avoid being stimulated by others' 'success stories';
Read books like (The Random Walk Guide) (Antifragile) to strengthen rational thinking.
6. Accepting 'Mediocrity': Embrace the philosophy of slow wealth
Action:
Invest most of the funds in low-risk strategies (e.g., index dollar-cost averaging), and a small portion for experimental trading;
Use the 'salary + investment' dual engine to accumulate wealth, rather than going all-in.
Case:
99% of Buffett's wealth was gained after age 50, with early accumulation relying on insurance float and compounding.
III. Summary: From 'conquering the market' to 'dancing with the market'
The market's invincibility is not a denial of personal ability, but a reverence for natural laws. True trading experts achieve long-term survival through risk management, discipline, and utilizing probabilities, rather than chasing short-term miracles. The key turning point from gambler to professional trader occurs when the subconscious 'obsession with getting rich quickly' is replaced by 'systematic thinking'.