There is currently a rumor that Trump needs a recession (possibly artificially)🇺🇸

Let's assume, is such a situation possible?👺

I have reviewed all the recent events related to the recession, and here’s what I found🖐

1️⃣Let's start with the fact that the events surrounding tariffs imposed by Trump and other changes have significantly shaken the market (though it was already overheated).

2️⃣The US debt stands at $36.5 trillion, and this year $7 trillion needs to be paid.

The USA will have to take on new loans by issuing debt securities to pay off old ones. If interest rates and bond yields are high, servicing the debt will become expensive, which will increase the budget deficit.

The Federal Reserve rates have not changed, which means that loans are still expensive for businesses, and borrowing money is not profitable yet. (Pump is canceled - shall we disperse?🙈)

Trump says that a recession is not coming soon. BUT keep this in mind, it often happens that they say one thing and do something completely different, so it's important to look at the metrics.

3️⃣From 2022 to 2024, the yield curve of Treasury securities was inverted - short-term bonds had a higher yield than long-term ones. Now the curve is returning to normal, but historically after such a return, economic crises have followed. An inverted curve is considered a harbinger of recession.

What does the American market have to do with crypto?🤷‍♂️

The correlation is direct, I recommend checking the chart of Russel2000 and BTC.

What will happen to Bitcoin?🪙

In 2020, the US Federal Reserve injected 4 trillion dollars into the market due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a 17-fold increase in the price of Bitcoin. If a similar situation occurs now, 2.5–3 trillion dollars could be injected into the system, which would cause the price of Bitcoin to rise by 5–7 times.

By the way, Binance is placing thick limit orders all the way up to $66,000 (does anyone know anything?🐦‍⬛️)

In my honest opinion, the market needs a strong stress situation for the Federal Reserve to turn the printing press back on. The pandemic and war are no longer frightening, but an internet shutdown or famine is quite possible❌

So buckle up - it's going to be fun😎 right now it might not be, but closer to May anything is possible (liquidity is leaving the market, and some FUD can be added)

Sincerely yours, Lamp Trade😊