Last week proved volatile for Bitcoin $BTC with the cryptocurrency climbing to a high of $88.8K before plunging to $81.8K. As of March 31, 2025, Bitcoin trades at $82K, down 3% week-over-week, slipping below the critical 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support. Meanwhile, altcoins like $ETH Ethereum (-10%), $XRP (-12%), Solana (-6%), and Cardano (-6%) faced steeper declines, though TON and SUI showed resilience. With Trump’s reciprocal trade tariffs looming and macroeconomic uncertainty rising, Bitcoin’s trajectory remains uncertain. Here’s a deep dive into the factors driving this market shift, including distressed short-term holders (STHs), surging gold prices, and institutional ETF inflows.

Bitcoin Liquidations Surge as Bulls Lose Momentum

Cryptocurrency markets saw a spike in liquidations last week as prices hit multi-week lows. According to Coinglass, long liquidations totaled $1.21 billion, dwarfing the $514.8 million in short liquidations. This imbalance signals waning bullish momentum, with leveraged traders bearing the brunt of the downturn. Investors searching for "Bitcoin price crash" or "crypto liquidations 2025" will find this data underscores the market’s fragility amid macroeconomic pressures.

Bitcoin ETFs Maintain Inflows Despite Friday Outflows

Institutional interest in Bitcoin remains robust. Coinglass reports BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net inflows of $88.79 million last week, marking two consecutive weeks of positive flows. Over a 10-day streak, ETFs added $1 billion in value—the longest winning streak of 2025. However, Friday saw $93.1 million in outflows, led by Fidelity, halting the run. For those tracking "Bitcoin ETF performance" or "institutional crypto investment," this resilience contrasts with Bitcoin’s 12% Q1 decline—its worst since 2018’s 49.7% drop.

Historically, Q2 has been kinder to BTC, averaging 26% gains since 2013. Could this trend offer hope for a rebound? Investors Googling "Bitcoin Q2 forecast" may find optimism here.

Macro Factors: Trump Tariffs and Sticky Inflation

The broader market mood soured after initial optimism over Trump’s potential leniency on trade tariffs faded. His announcement of 25% tariffs on car imports, set to take effect April 2, 2025, rattled investors. Compounding this, February’s Core PCE inflation—the Fed’s preferred gauge—rose to 2.8% annually (up from 2.5%) and 0.4% monthly (above the expected 0.3%). Consumer spending, however, grew just 0.1%, hinting at stagflation risks.

These developments drove a risk-off sentiment, with the Nasdaq dropping 2% on Friday and gold soaring past $3,100 to a new all-time high. Searches for "Trump tariffs impact on crypto" or "gold vs Bitcoin 2025" reflect growing investor unease as tariffs threaten to exacerbate inflation and dampen growth.

Bitcoin Whales Accumulate Amid Uncertainty

Despite the turbulence, Bitcoin whales (holders of 1,000–10,000 BTC) are quietly accumulating. Addresses in this cohort rose from 1,956 on January 1, 2025, to 1,990 by March 27—still shy of February 2024’s peak of 2,730. For those researching "Bitcoin whale activity" or "crypto accumulation trends," this suggests confidence among large players, even as short-term holders falter.

Short-Term Holders in Distress: A Glassnode Perspective

Glassnode data reveals Bitcoin consolidating between $78K and $88K, with on-chain profit-taking waning—a sign of weakening demand. Short-term holders (STHs), those owning BTC for less than six months, are under severe pressure. Many bought at $90K–$100K, and their supply in loss hit a seven-year high of 3.4 million BTC. This selling pressure could trigger a broader "market-wide capitalization event." Keywords like "Bitcoin STH distress" or "Glassnode crypto analysis" highlight this critical dynamic.

Bitcoin’s 1-Year % Change Nears Negative Territory

Bitcoin’s 1-year percentage change is teetering near negative, a metric signaling bearish sentiment when it dips below zero. Historically, three of the last four negative shifts preceded sustained downturns, though 2024’s negative phase led to consolidation before a bullish breakout. Investors searching "Bitcoin price prediction 2025" or "BTC yearly performance" might see this as a pivotal moment—either a precursor to new lows or a setup for stagnation before recovery.

Technical Outlook: 50 SMA Holds, Sell-Side Ratio Signals Hope

Despite the gloom, Bitcoin’s weekly 50-day SMA remains a key support, underpinning bull runs in 2021 and the 2023–2025 cycle. A break below could signal a bear market, but for now, the structure holds bullish. Meanwhile, the sell-side ratio—comparing investor spending to realized market cap—sits at 0.086%. Historically, levels below 0.1% have preceded major rallies. Searches for "Bitcoin technical analysis" or "BTC bull run indicators" may spotlight these mixed but hopeful signals.

What’s Next: Trump’s Tariff Announcement Looms

All eyes are on April 2, when Trump will detail reciprocal trade tariffs aimed at slashing the U.S.’s $1.2 trillion goods trade deficit. A softened stance could spark a market rally, while ambiguity or a hardline approach might fuel volatility or a risk-asset selloff. For those querying "Trump tariffs crypto impact" or "Bitcoin price April 2025," this event could set the tone for Q2.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Trading leveraged products carries high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results.