According to market analyst and Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin, the United States faces a 40% chance of entering a recession in 2025 amid an extended trade war and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.

In an interview with Cointelegraph, Puckrin noted that while a recession is not inevitable, the current economic uncertainty creates a challenging environment for risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies. He stated:

"Trump and his advisors have not completely ruled out a recession, which means it is definitely possible. I wouldn’t say it’s highly probable at the moment, but the odds have risen significantly."

Puckrin emphasized that President Donald Trump is not intentionally engineering a recession. However, his administration’s policies—such as cutting federal jobs and reducing spending to balance the budget—could inadvertently lead to an economic downturn.

Macroeconomic uncertainty has been a key driver behind the recent decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY), as investors shift capital to European markets in search of better opportunities and to hedge against risks in the US economy, Puckrin told Cointelegraph.

Trade war fears drag Bitcoin’s price lower

President Trump’s tariffs on US trading partners sent shockwaves through the crypto market, leading to a sharp decline in altcoin prices and a 24% correction in Bitcoin’s price from its January 20 high of over $109,000 to $83,281.

Concerns over a prolonged trade war have also pushed market sentiment into extreme fear— a stark contrast to the euphoria following Trump’s re-election in November 2025 and his January 20 inauguration.

According to Nansen Research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard, the crypto market will remain under pressure from tariffs until April 2025. However, if countries successfully negotiate an end to the tariffs or the Trump administration softens its stance, markets will recover.

10x Research founder Markus Thielen recently stated that Bitcoin likely found a price bottom in March 2025 when President Trump eased his rhetoric on trade tariffs, signaling a potential price reversal.