I wish retailers could understand how important this data is… The below post is shared by Truflation on X.
🚨 Where is Bitcoin Headed Next? A Signal based on Truflation Real-Time Data.🪙
1/ Since mid-2023, there has been a pattern between Truflation and BTC price action — and it’s playing out again right now 👀
2/ The Context: Post-COVID, the Fed hiked rates to tame inflation. By mid-2023:
- Truflation bottomed at 2% (June) and the BLS CPI bottomed at 3% (July). Yes, Truflation led the CPI by 45 days.
- Markets started asking: 👉 “Has inflation dropped enough for rate cuts?”
3/ Since then, Truflation has moved like this:
Jun 2023–Jun 2024: range between 2.3–3.4%
Sept 2024–March 2025: fell to as low as 1.30%
And here’s where it gets interesting:
📉 Every time Truflation downtrended and then paused or reversed
📈 BTC followed with a rally shortly after
4/ Let’s look at the pattern:
1️⃣ Sept 28–Oct 10 → BTC rallied shortly after
2️⃣ Oct 29–Nov 13 → BTC rallied shortly after
3️⃣ Dec 01–Jan 06 → BTC rallied shortly after
4️⃣ May 31–Sept 16 → BTC rallied shortly after
🆕 Now: Jan 18 → March 12 2025
Truflation fell again: 3.10% → 1.30% 📉. And it looks like we are having a pause/reversal…
Will BTC follow? 📈
5/ Why does this happen?
Because Bitcoin is:
✔️ Forward-looking
✔️ Sensitive to liquidity
✔️ A proxy for rate cuts anticipation
When Truflation shows disinflation: 👉 “The Fed target is coming — maybe done tightening”
When that disinflation slows: 👉 “Soft landing ahead” → risk-on mood → BTC rally
6/ Think of it this way:
🔺 Inflation rising → Fed hawkish → risk-off → BTC bearish
🔻 Steep disinflation → uncertainty (recession fears) → BTC mixed
🧘 Disinflation slowing (relief) → soft landing hopes → BTC bullish ✅
We’re in that last zone again — the historical BTC launchpad 📈
7/ Institutions use Truflation granular data to front-run CPI, stay ahead of the Fed, and read market sentiment before others.