The crypto circle is the first place to easily become a deity. From small trading teachers to top industry giants, as long as you help friends make money, you are a god.

Of course, this god-status will turn into a dog tag when it causes people to lose money—only to be exchanged for a god card when it makes money next time. Everyone knows this situation is wrong, and deep down, they all laugh at such retail behavior.

But when it comes down to it, it inevitably turns into 'the version of yourself that you hate the most', and you remain unaware. This is how the entire network currently feels about Ethereum and Vitalik.

In the past, Ethereum was glorious, with each round of increases surpassing Bitcoin. At that time, whatever Vitalik said was right, and everyone called him 'God V'. In less than a year, 'God V' became 'Dog V', and everything was wrong; layer 2 didn't work, the foundation was poorly managed, and the vision was unclear—actually, it can be summed up in one sentence: Ethereum's price hasn't risen. What everyone wants to know now is probably whether Ethereum can still take off.

Many people have been asking me, so today I will talk about my thoughts on Ethereum. There are many analyses online about why Ethereum isn't rising.

For example, Ethereum's ability to serve as a 'store of value' has weakened, Ethereum is being squeezed for survival space by Solana and BSC, the foundation's governance is poor, or Ethereum's future plans are unclear, etc.

These statements have their reasons but do not address the core of the issue.

If you don't have a higher-level perspective, these similar questions are endless. First, understand a principle: those who make big money in the crypto circle must have heavily invested in a worthwhile project and earned big returns.

Heavy investment is easy to understand, but what qualifies as a worthwhile investment? It is the one that can continue to rise and has the most certainty.

In other words, what we need to judge is not whether Ethereum can fly today or tomorrow, but whether it can be tied to the industry's development, how much uncertainty it has, and whether it's worth a heavy investment.

In my view, the core question only has three:

The first question is whether Ethereum will be replaced.

This is the most important judgment. If Ethereum is replaced by Solana, BSC, or BTC layer 2, then there is naturally no need to hold it. So, will it be replaced? I don't think so.

Many people feel that the on-chain activity index is far from what it used to be, Layer 2 is too fragmented, and the Ethereum management team is ineffectively governing, already on the verge of being replaced—this is not how the problem should be viewed.

For any project in the crypto circle, whether it is decentralized is the first indicator for establishing a long-term holding. Speed, security? What right do you have to compete with traditional finance? If you can't win, what are you talking about disruption for? Without disruption, where is the industrial reshaping, and where is the new wealth for you to share? If there is no decentralization, then there is no need to invest in the crypto circle. You can just give up directly.

The reality is that none of Ethereum's competitors can reach the same level of decentralization as Ethereum. This means that Ethereum still possesses the deepest moat among public chains, and no replaceable projects have emerged within a visible range.

The second question is whether Ethereum's value will be captured at the application layer.

Strictly speaking, Ethereum itself is infrastructure. From a business model perspective, infrastructure is not the endpoint of value; applications are. Because applications are the products that directly provide value to users, such as Google's, Apple's, and Nvidia's web 2.0.

What we need to worry about is whether a trillion-dollar application will emerge on Ethereum while Ethereum remains valued at 300 billion. Right?

This is the problem we need to worry about, isn't it? I don't know, so this is the uncertainty of Ethereum.

The third question is how long the breakthrough at the application layer will take.

The breakthrough of the application layer in the future of the crypto industry is beyond doubt. At that time, as the most important infrastructure in the crypto circle, Ethereum can rise tenfold, from 300 billion to 3 trillion, as easily as drinking water.

But the question is, how long will this breakthrough singularity take? One year, two years? Or ten years, twenty years? If it takes twenty years for Ethereum to rise from 300 billion to 3 trillion, then this return won't surpass Bitcoin. If it's one year or two years, then the return will be very considerable.

I think it is difficult to see a singularity moment in one or two years, but there is a chance that future expectations will be realized ahead of time—yet that is also uncertainty.

Based on the above considerations, compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum is a representative of the application layer and may have stronger explosiveness. However, the only constant in application layer products is that they must always change. The variable that Ethereum has over Bitcoin is that the team still needs to continuously adjust to maintain competitiveness.

In contrast, Bitcoin's competitive edge as a store of value lies in maintaining a continuous consensus, remaining unchanged like gold—meanwhile, Bitcoin is naturally tied to the industry's growth rate.

I am very optimistic that Ethereum will have a greater increase than Bitcoin, but based on the above three points, I feel its certainty is not as strong as Bitcoin, and it hasn't risen as long as Bitcoin.

So my allocation is a small position in Ethereum and a large position in Bitcoin—this is the configuration that makes me the most at ease, not overly anxious due to Ethereum's lack of rise, while also being patient to wait for Ethereum to take off.

But if you don't have such thinking, even if I say Ethereum will take off in the future, there is a high probability that you still won't be able to hold it.

Everyone can review whether it's Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, or other altcoins; isn't it true that every time you build a position, it only rises a little before starting to consolidate or plummet?

If at this time you start asking everywhere whether you can take it, whether you can buy it, and whether it can still rise, you will definitely have bought too much. What's the reason?

You bet more than your capacity on targets you don't understand.

At this point, the outcome is already determined. Don't expect to retreat unscathed; instead, think about how to salvage the situation. If you are asking whether Ethereum can still rise, it indicates that you don't understand Ethereum that well and that your investment position is too high.

Regardless of whether Ethereum will take off, you need to reduce your position; otherwise, you will definitely miss its rise.

Always remember, investing is about making yourself at ease, not distressed.