Polymarket, a popular prediction market platform, has detected a case of betting manipulation involving the UMA oracle. An anonymous trader exploited the UMA contract, influencing the outcome of a bet concerning U.S. funding for Ukraine. The trader reportedly manipulated the probability of the U.S. successfully funding Ukraine by April, pushing it to 100%. This manipulation occurred within a market with a substantial $7.07 million bet size. While the anonymous trader profited approximately $55,000, the largest loss incurred by another trader was $73,000. Polymarket is now collaborating with UMA to prevent similar incidents in the future. They have clarified that refunds will not be issued, as the event is classified as manipulation, not a market failure. This incident highlights the risks inherent in decentralized prediction markets and the importance of robust oracle security. ```