One, BTC/USD strategy analysis
Core logic: Warning of leveraged overheating under the dominance of spot buying
Key data:
- Exchange reserves drop to 2.23 million (lowest since 2021)
- Perpetual contract funding rate 0.08% (30-day average 0.03%)
- MVRV-Z score 2.7 (2.5-3.0 is a high-risk range)
Technical resonance analysis:
1. Gann Fan Line: Strong support at $87,000 formed by the daily 1×1 angle line, overlapping with EMA15 moving average
2. Wave Theory:
- A breakout above $88,500 (March 20 high) will confirm the extension of the fifth wave, target $89,500-$90,000
- Breaking below $86,000 (Dow trend line) will open the ABC correction structure
Strategy Execution:
- Long position: Accumulate in batches in the range of $87,200-$87,500, stop loss at $86,000, target $89,000/$89,500
- Short position: Try to short when there is a volume-price divergence above $89,000, stop loss at $89,800, target $87,500
Two, ETH/USD strategy analysis
Core logic: Giant whale accumulation and the bull-bear game in technical aspects
Key data:
- Stablecoin market cap increased by 1.2% month-on-month, but ETH on-chain trading volume decreased by 8%
- Whale addresses (holding 100,000+ ETH) net bought 153,000 coins in the past 7 days
- $2,100 option exercise volume reaches $230 million
Technical resonance analysis:
1. Wyckoff Distribution Theory: Supply test signal appears with shrinking volume and rising price at $2,100 resistance
2. Harmonic Pattern: The range of $2,030-$2,100 forms a 'bullish bat' pattern, breaking $2,106 completes the pattern confirmation
Strategy Execution:
- Long position: Accumulate in batches in the range of $2,030-$2,050, stop loss at $1,950, target $2,100/$2,150
- Short position: Lightly short when encountering resistance above $2,106, stop loss at $2,150, target $2,000
Three, altcoin opportunity exploration
1. RWA track (real asset tokenization)
- OM (Mantra DAO):
- Daily EMA12/26 golden cross, RSI breaks through the neutral zone at 60
- Support level: $7.26 (200-day moving average), target $8.5
- BKN (Brickken):
- Breakthrough of the key resistance at $0.33, good volume-price correlation
- Support level: $0.31, target $0.38 (March 15 high)
2. AI + DePIN track
- PINAI:
- BlackRock European Technology ETF funds outflow benefiting targets
- Support level: $0.165 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level), target $0.21
Four, risk control system
1. Position management:
- Single transaction risk ≤ 2% of total capital
- BTC/ETH leverage ratio ≤ 3 times, altcoins only participate in spot trading
2. Key stop loss level:
- BTC: Breaking below $86,000 (Dow trend line + whale cost area)
- ETH: Breaking below $1,950 (February 2025 low + concentrated option exercise price)
3. Event Warning:
- March 27, US PPI data (expected year-on-year +2.4%)
- April 11 SEC cryptocurrency roundtable
Five, execution points
1. BTC: Focus on the effectiveness of the $87,000 support, increase position on a breakout above $88,500
2. ETH: The resistance area at $2,100 needs to be broken with volume, otherwise high sell low buy
3. Altcoins: Prioritize the top 10 coins by capital inflow, set a 15% dynamic stop profit
(Note: The above strategies are based on historical data and technical analysis, the market is risky, decision-making requires caution)