🔹 Morgan Stanley's big call:
👉 Is a massive capital return to the U.S. led by the "7 Magnificent"? 🏦💡
👉 Possible 15% rally (up to 6,500 pts in the S&P 500) and, in an optimistic scenario, a 31% (7,400 pts)! 🚀
📌 Keys to the Possible Rally:
✅ Quarterly results better than expected 📊➕
✅ Interest rate cuts on the horizon (Fed maintains 2 cuts for 2024) 💸🔻
✅ Weaker dollar = Benefit for exports and multinationals 🇺🇸📉
✅ Key support: 5,500 pts in the S&P 500 (if broken, rally confirmed!) ✔️
⚠️ Risks and Warnings:
🔻 Weak domestic demand could affect consumer companies. 🛒📉
🔻 High beta stocks (more volatile) led the rebound, but will they sustain the rally? 🎢
💡 What Moves the Market?
✔️ Fed "dovish": Powell downplayed inflation and reduced QT (balance) 🏦
✔️ Sector rotation: Banks, energy, and industrials could drive the rally. ⚡
✔️ Capital flows: If money returns to the U.S., the S&P could surge. 💰📈
🎯 Possible Scenarios:
1️⃣ Base (15% increase): 6,500 pts in S&P (weak dollar + rate cuts).
2️⃣ Optimistic (31% increase): 7,400 pts if cyclical sectors (banking, energy) take off.
🤔 And now?
🔎 Key: Surpass 5,500 pts to confirm the rally.
📉 If it doesn't hold, correction could deepen.
Morgan Stanley believes that… the U.S. could be ready for an explosive rebound! 💥
What do you think?
Buy or caution? 👀📊