First, **Wave theory: Fishing using tidal rules**
Core logic:
Market fluctuations are like ocean waves; mastering the rhythm of rises and falls is more important than predicting storms.
Five wave three iron rules:
1. Wave 2 does not break wave 1 bottom → Bottom line of an upward trend
2. Wave 3 is not the shortest wave → Dignity of the main upward wave
3. Wave 4 does not overlap with wave 1 top → Proof of a healthy trend
Minimal operation:
- Counting wave mantra:
'First wave rises, second wave washes, third wave goes crazy, fourth wave panics, fifth wave escapes and laughs heartbreakingly.'
- Reverse signal:
When the five waves show a 'double top + volume-price divergence', immediately open a reverse position
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Second, **Emotional cycle: The cycle from FOMO to ghost stories**
Four-stage model:
1. Latency period:
- On-chain whales increase holdings, but social media is quiet
- Action: Dollar-cost average on spot, only buy and not sell
2. Awakening period:
- KOLs start analyzing 'technical breakthroughs', trading volume moderately expands
- Action: Increase position when breaking key resistance levels
3. Frenzy period:
- Exchange crashes, community uses memes instead of rationality
- Action: Take profits in batches, sell 10% for every 10% increase
4. Collapse period:
- Positive news becomes ineffective, community begins to fabricate conspiracy theories
- Action: Liquidate and open a reverse contract (5% position)
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🔑 Survival toolbox
1. Wave trader:
- Enter fully when wave 3 starts (breakthrough wave 1 top + volume increase)
- When wave 5 shows an upper shadow, use a trailing stop to lock in profits
2. Emotional thermometer:
- Monitor Google search index:
✅ 'How to Buy Cryptocurrency' surges → Awakening phase end
✅ 'Cryptocurrency Scams' surges → Starting point of the collapse period
3. Counter-cyclical seeding method:
- When the community starts circulating (Bull Market Exit Strategy) → Buy
- When the community goes viral (Bear Market Survival Manual) → Sell
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🌰 Real-world mapping
- Wave theory vs Surfing:
Missing a wave (missing out) is not scary; forcing to chase waves (FOMO) can lead to drowning
- Emotional cycle vs Flu spread:
Latency period (no discussion) → Explosion period (trending topics) → Fade period (public immunity)
- On-chain data vs Heartbeat monitor:
Whale transfers = sudden heart rate change → Immediate diagnosis needed (check direction/amount)
（Note: The market is like the weather; do not try to control the winds and clouds; just learn to adjust your clothing according to the thickness of the clouds. Minimalism is the composure after seeing through complexity.）
