#TON反弹 Toncoin（$TON ） surged over 20% overnight after the news that Telegram founder Pavel Durov's passport was returned by French authorities, igniting market sentiment like a firework. The TON Association claimed that this was not just a personal victory, but a symbol of free speech, privacy protection, and innovative spirit, adding fuel to the project's mission. However, is this surge a signal that TON is about to take off, or just a fleeting moment of excitement? Let me share my thoughts.
Let's talk about the immediate situation. This price drop was clearly ignited by news. Durov has deep ties with TON, and when he was detained in France last August, TON dropped nearly 14%; now that his passport has returned, the tide has turned immediately. On March 15, open contracts surged 67%, reaching $169 million, as the market resembled a school of sharks drawn to the scent of blood. This operation clearly shows the emotional frenzy of short-term funds, eliminating uncertainty, allowing everyone to breathe a sigh of relief, and naturally, the price jumped up.
But whether this can become a long-term turning point for TON requires deeper analysis. The TON project fundamentally aims to leverage Telegram's nearly 1 billion users to put cryptocurrency in everyone's pocket. With the release of the passport, Durov's personal halo shines a bit brighter, and TON's narrative has been gilded—freedom, privacy, innovation, what a compelling story! Recently, Telegram has introduced some new features, such as upgrading the Wallet function to support multiple currencies and launching a yield plan, even becoming more active in cooperating with US authorities (having submitted 900 data requests last year); all of this seems to be paving the way for TON to breathe in the regulatory crack and even establish a foothold. If these actions can be realized, TON's long-term story might indeed have some potential.
But don't be too quick to be optimistic; TON's path is not paved with flowers. Data shows that 96% of coin holders are still trapped, indicating that the price is not stabilizing. Moreover, those mini-programs and games in the TON ecosystem were as hot as summer barbecues when they launched on Binance last year, but soon cooled down, failing to retain retail and high-risk funds. In the fields of DeFi and NFTs, TON also does not have any impressive track record. Relying solely on Telegram's traffic for facade may not sustain in the long run.
So I ponder, this surge was indeed driven by real emotions in the short term, but for it to become a long-term trend, it depends on whether Durov and the TON team can seize this favorable wind and do something substantial. For example, making the on-chain ecosystem more lively, attracting more developers, or even allowing Telegram users to unknowingly use TON; otherwise, once this heat dissipates, the price is likely to wobble back around $3.